The outcome of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections could heavily influence the trajectory of the tariff war and Donald Trump’s ongoing behaviour towards Canada, one expert says.
Should the U.S. Democratic party do well in the elections, it would mean more “pressure” on Trump regarding the tariff war, Matt Duss, executive vice-president for the U.S. Center for International Policy, told CTV’s Your Morning on Tuesday.
“I would say that this trade war that the president has declared on China and many other partners and allies around the world is very much a part of these midterms,” he said.
Voting day is set to take place on Nov. 3 and the outcome could shift the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.
Duss, a former foreign policy adviser to U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, predicts the Democrats, who currently hold a minority in both, could come out with a majority in both chambers.
Trump’s recent concession to drop tariffs some Canadian goods, at the behest of Maine’s Republican Sen. Susan Collins, may change little for voters, he added.
“These views are pretty much baked at this point,” he said. “People have been paying very high costs for basic goods, for gas ... the question of cost of living, cost of housing, cost of transportation, all of these are very much on American voters’ minds.”
A Democrat win
The Democrats are “almost certainly” taking the House in the elections and “now very possibly” the Senate, Duss said.
Even if the Democrats were to take control of one of the chambers, it would give them “control of the legislative agenda (and) create opportunities for putting pressure on Trump and highlighting costs of this trade war,” he added.
They have the power to “call hearings, call in administration officials to ask them to explain themselves,” he added.
They can also pass or not pass budgets for different initiatives.
Trump is ‘not a normal president’
The question, Duss says, is how a potential Democrat win would change Trump’s behaviour.
“Trump is not a normal president,” he said, and has shown himself willing to “blow through even existing constraints.”
“He has shown in the past that when he is challenged, he overreacts. He sees all of politics as a kind of dominance display,” he added.
Duss opined that should the Republicans lose the midterms, Trump’s behaviour could worsen.
Earlier in October, U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra accused Canadian politicians of potentially interfering in the midterm elections.
It’s nothing new, according to Duss. “This is a claim that Donald Trump is always making,” he said, adding that Americans “don’t buy it.”
“They see what we’re all seeing, which is that Republicans are in for a very, very bad day on election day and Donald Trump is trying to blame anyone but himself.”
