Political watchers say the Democrats’ landslide victory in the U.S. midterms, including in longtime Republican border states, is a “referendum on Trump.”
Of the 33 states that held Senate elections, the Democrats won 20 seats, including in five states that share a border with Canada. The party also won seats in the House of Representatives in every state bordered Canada, except for Alaska.
“When we look at the totality of what happened, it is absolutely astonishing,” Aurel Braun, international relations and political science professor at the University of Toronto, told CTVNews.ca on Wednesday.
“I would say it was a massacre.”
For the border states in particular, the U.S.-Canada trade dispute played a significant role, Braun said.
The tariff conflict escalated in August after U.S. President Donald Trump enacted 50 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods and services. In early September, Prime Minister Mark Carney hit back with retaliatory tariffs targeting certain U.S. states, to which Trump followed with a second round of tariffs.
It’s difficult to say what kind of impact the trade dispute played into Americans’ voting decisions, Braun said, but it “obviously had an impact.”
“The tariff war (became) something much more complex because it blended into the overall increase in the cost of living, the cost of energy and so it would be difficult to deconstruct that,” he said, adding that Americans were also “appalled” by Trump’s treatment of a country that they view “very favourably.”
While a significant number of Americans living in those states still voted red, experts say it’s important to consider how those states voted historically.
“These are states where Democrats have never competed and Republicans never had challengers,” Eric Ham, CTV News U.S. political analyst told CTVNews.ca.
“I think that speaks to just how deep the push was that you actually saw the change that took place.”
Maine and Michigan
Ham pointed to the results in Michigan and Maine as key indicators of a general political shift away from Trump.
In Maine, Republican Senate candidate Susan Collins had held the seat for nearly 30 years. “That was her superpower,” Ham said. “If Donald Trump has nine lives, Susan Collins has 10.”
Collins bid for a sixth term in office became increasingly embattled after contending with Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on seafood and fish products, which threatened Maine’s lobster industry, prompting Trump to rescind some of his tariffs two weeks before the elections.
“I thought that would be enough to cement her victory,” Ham said.
He also pointed to Trump’s beratement of Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed for being a Muslim. “All of the stuff about the Palestinian and Jewish and Muslim Brotherhood and just the racism that really took hold,” he said.
Tariffs pushed Democrats over the finish line
While there were other factors “in play,” Ham said the tariffs were the “one central issue that moved voters.” The tariffs, he said, increased costs of living for families.
“You had retaliatory tariffs by Canada that cost Ohio more than (US)$3 billion,” he said. “In Michigan you had families that it was costing nearly $5,500, whereas in the rest of the country they were paying around $1,100 to $1,700, so that was a huge incentive.”
If the trade dispute hadn’t occurred, the elections may have played out differently, experts say.
“Voters probably would have been kinder to him,” Braun said. “People vote (with) their pocketbooks and the trade war definitely damaged the economic well-being of all people, including those in the border states.”
Ham noted that in the weeks leading up to the midterms, some Republican lawmakers began to distance themselves from Trump “specifically on tariffs and on the issue of Canada,” due to the economic impact on their constituents.
The election results also revealed the kind of relationship Americans want with Canada, Ham added.
“They’re like basically, ‘we want a relationship with Canada,’” he said. “‘We respect Canada. We like Canada.’”
Long-term status quo
It’s unrealistic to expect an “absolute complete desertion” of Trump for Americans who expressed support for Canada in the trade war, Braun said.
“People often vote in a particular way because that is tradition,” he added.
Voters, for instance, may consider which party to choose if Trump wasn’t in office and about what issues matter to them.
Ham echoed Braun’s statement and emphasized the significance of voting status quo.
In states that have long been ruled by one party, “you just did not have a system or an infrastructure that knew how to do anything else but support the status quo,” he said.
While Canada was a hot-button issue in the election, it wasn’t the only subject on American’s minds, Braun added.
“They have been basically looking at a whole range of concerns, the price of energy, the cost of living, the position of the U.S. internationally, in relation to Canada as well.”
However, Trump’s policies — not just towards Canada — have prompted a swell of dislike for him, Braun said, not only due to his tariff disruptions but his handling of immigration, the Iran war, diplomacy efforts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict - “all of that had a cumulative effect where people became utterly disillusioned with him,” he said.
“I would suggest this (election) as a referendum on Trump,” Braun said. “Not necessarily a referendum on the American economy.”
