After widespread Canadian job losses, a churning trade dispute and repeated insults against Canada’s leaders, the Trump administration faced a major test today as Americans vote to maintain a Republican majority or give Democrats the balance of power.
U.S. media project the Democrats will take control of Congress. Most polls across the country are now closed.
Canada-focused updates, analysis and results below:
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A Dem for governor in Texas
Texans have elected Democrat Gina Hinojosa to serve as their governor, the Associated Press reports.
She’s the first Democrat governor to win since 1994, beating her Trump-backed Republican competitor, Greg Abbott.
She’s the first Democrat governor to win since 1994, beating her Trump-backed Republican competitor, Greg Abbott.
Texas goes blue: U.S. media
The Lone Star State, long considered a Republican stalwart, has elected Democratic senate candidate James Talarico, according to NBC News and CBS News.
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a campaign event in Austin, Texas, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Key updates
- U.S. media project Dems will control the House
- Republican stronghold Texas elects Democrats
- Carney, Trump say intensive trade talks underway
How do midterms work?
Midterms happen two years into a president’s term. Trump himself is not up for re-election, but the makeup of the two U.S. legislative bodies – the House of Representatives and the Senate – is likely to shift as Americans vote.
Who’s on the ballot?
All members of the House of Representatives, often called “the House,” who serve two-year terms.
About a third of senators, who serve six-year terms.
This year, 36 states will also elect governors.
What could change?
Democrats have a shot at taking control of the House and Senate.
To win the Senate, they need to hold all the seats they have now, plus four.
To win the House, the Democrats need to net three seats for a majority.
What’s at stake?
Congress, the umbrella term for the House and Senate, is responsible for creating laws, authorizing spending and collecting taxes, staffing confirmations, and investigations.
If the Republicans lose control of Congress, they will need to rely on Democrats’ support to pass legislation.
Dems win first Kansas Senate seat in 94 years: U.S. media report
Adam Hamilton defeated Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, both the Associated Press and NBC News project.
He is the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1932.
Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024.
A tale of two Sullivans
A lot has been made of the two Dan Sullivans on the ballot in the Alaska senate race.
One, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired schoolteacher who’s run an invisible campaign, the other Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan.
The New York Times alleged this week it was Democratic operatives working alongside the Mary Peltola campaign who recruited the second Dan Sullivan to run in hopes of stealing votes away from the incumbent.
But based on voters we’re speaking with in Anchorage, the Dan Sullivan ballot issue is not resonating as an issue that could change voting intention.
Multiple voters have told us it is not difficult to differentiate between the two on the ballot. Others pointed out this is the kind of sneaky behaviour both parties have engaged in in U.S. politics, and they think a bigger deal is being made of it by the media and those in the “lower 48” than here in Alaska.
One man did tell me he thinks it’s cheating, and if he’d been planning to vote Mary Peltola, he’d be changing his vote.
In polling prior to voting day, Peltola’s been holding a narrow lead over Sullivan. If elected, she would be the state’s first Democratic senator since 2008.
Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, speaks to the media after voting at the Alaska Zoo on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Anchorage, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson
Will a renewed Congress halt the tariffs?
A Congress led by Trump’s critics could certainly pass laws making it explicit that Trump’s tariffs must stop. But unless those critics hold a two-thirds majority in both chambers of Congress, Trump can veto their laws.
More plausibly, an energized and combative Congress might fight Trump on so many fronts, that trying to maintain an unpopular and counterproductive tariff war against Canada could just slip down his list of priorities. He could instruct his negotiators to conclude the tariff war, and then proceed to declare victory to the world.
Equally, though, there is a risk that he might redouble his efforts and intensify the tariff war, if he believes that Congress is blocking other public policy avenues that had been open to him when his party held both chambers.
The tariffs will still be in place in the morning. But the balance of power in the United States is likely to be very different.
Where that will lead in the mornings to follow will be decided by other political contests that have not yet begun.
Trump says he’ll work with Democrats: New York Times
Despite Trump’s bombastic language on Truth Social where he claimed he would have ‘won IN A LANDSLIDE’ if it was him on the ballot, he told The New York Times in an interview he’s willing to not only accept the midterm results, but he’d also work with Democrats.
“I am absolutely willing to accept those results,” he said in an interview shortly before 10:30pm ET, while he was watching election results at the White House, according to the Times.
“We’ll work with the Democrats,” he added, “and we’ll, you know, look forward to working with them. We’ll probably work something out.”
Trump says ‘we would have won’ if he was on ballot
U.S. President Donald Trump has weighed in on Truth Social for the first time since U.S. media projected Democrats will take the House.
“I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP,” read his post.
Prior to election day, Trump had told supporters to “just pretend I’m on the ballot,” urging Republicans to vote to protect his “America First” agenda.
With files from CTV News Washington Bureau Chief Joy Malbon
President Donald Trump speaks in front of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
2026 midterms changes calculus on trade
Democrats have won in the south, they have won in red states, and they have even when being wildly outspent. Voters soundly rebuked Trump’s key economic policy, including tariffs, and they sent a resounding message they want a check on his power, including his trade authorities.
Now the White House, weakened and severely diminished, heads into key negotiations with Ottawa. The landscape is ripe for an agreement, but it remains to be seen if Trump will listen.
Democrats flip Ohio Senate seat
Democrat Sherrod Brown won the U.S. Senate seat in Ohio, defeating Republican incumbent Jon Husted, according to multiple U.S. media outlets.
Brown served in the Senate for three terms until he lost his seat in 2024.
Husted had been appointed to the seat to replace JD Vance after he became vice-president.
Ohio is the fourth Republican seat to flip Democrat Tuesday night.
Former U.S. president Barack Obama stands with Democratic Ohio Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, right, during a campaign rally, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
Is the tariff war over, or just beginning?
As the Democrats take back control of Congress, what difference might that make to the Canada-U.S. tariff war? The difficulty in answering the question that is on the minds of so many Canadians, is that the tariff war itself is so irrational as to defy reasoned analysis.
Quoting laws to men with swords
Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution is utterly clear. It is Congress, and not the president, that holds the exclusive authority to set tariffs and regulate international trade. Yet, Donald Trump has never sought or received congressional authorization for his tariff war.
The tariffs he has imposed on Canada, and on so many other countries, are flatly illegal. But that fact has not deterred him from imposing them.
It is, therefore, something of a riddle to ask whether a constitutional change in legislative leadership might alter a policy that is unconstitutionally defying the legislature.
How is this possible?
Trump has been relying on a series of previous laws that authorized the president to act on behalf of Congress, to levy tariffs if necessary to respond to situations too grave, too pressing, or too transient to be referred back to the legislature.
Some of those laws concern national security. Some have strict time limits. Some are meant to respond to discriminatory practices against Americans. None of those laws empowers the president to substitute himself for Congress to make ordinary tariff policy.
It is for this reason that Trump has had recourse to a series of flimsy pretexts to justify his tariffs: that they are responding to a national fentanyl emergency emanating from Canada; that they are blocking a national security threat caused by illegal immigration from Canada; that they are combatting Canada’s involvement in international slavery.
The presidential administration neither believes any of these claims, nor expects anyone else to believe them. These are merely the incantations the administration believes it can use to transform unconstitutional tariffs into legally-passable tariffs.
Texas goes blue: U.S. media
The Lone Star State, long considered a Republican stalwart, has elected Democratic senate candidate James Talarico, according to NBC News and CBS News.
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a campaign event in Austin, Texas, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Acton defeats Ramaswamy in Ohio governor race
Democrat Amy Acton defeated Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in the Ohio governor race, CNN and MS NOW have reported.
The race saw major controversy in the final month after Ramaswamy’s camp released an ad that featured Acton’s estranged mother, saying she lied about her childhood.
Acton’s mother lost custody of her other children decades ago after her husband was indicted for sexually assaulting Amy Acton.
Amy Acton speaks to media outside her polling place on the Capitol University campus after voting in Columbus, Ohio, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Trump says ‘we would have won’ if he was on ballot
U.S. President Donald Trump has weighed in on Truth Social for the first time since U.S. media projected Democrats will take the House.
“I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP,” read his post.
Prior to election day, Trump had told supporters to “just pretend I’m on the ballot,” urging Republicans to vote to protect his “America First” agenda.
With files from CTV News Washington Bureau Chief Joy Malbon
Republican double trouble
It’s important to have historical context in interpreting how the Republicans are doing. The party in the White House usually faces a rough ride in the midterms. In 2010, Obama lost 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate to the Republicans. Obama himself called it a shellacking.
The Iran-U.S. war is the perfect storm for the Democrats — it’s a foreign policy quagmire for President Trump and it intersects with the price of gas. Double trouble for the Republicans.
For the last two years the Republicans have enjoyed a political trifecta — holding the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Democrats picking up the House unravels the firm grip of the Republicans.
As we wait for more results the big question now will be the Senate.
For the last two years the Republicans have enjoyed a political trifecta — holding the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Democrats picking up the House unravels the firm grip of the Republicans.
As we wait for more results the big question now will be the Senate.
The first-ever openly gay male U.S. senator
Democrat Chris Pappas defeated Republican John Sununu to become New Hampshire's next senator.
Pappas makes history as the first openly-gay man elected to the U.S. Senate.
Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Chris Pappas, right, D-N.H., greets the crowd at an election night event, with Vann Bentley, left, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Manchester, N.H. (AP Photo/Reba Saldanha)
Democrats flip South Carolina, U.S. news outlets project
CNN, NBC News and The New York Times so far are projecting that Democrat Annie Andrews will win the Senate race in South Carolina.
This means the Democrats have flipped a seat that has been Republican red for nearly three decades.
The Associated Press has yet to call the state but show Democrats with a four-point lead with nearly 90 per cent of the vote counted, so far.
Georgia rebukes Trump’s ‘depravity, corruption’: Ossoff
Ossoff addressed supporters Tuesday night after he was re-elected in the Georgia Senate race. He reiterated that the Trump administration is corrupt and that everyday Americans were falling behind.
“The American people have rebuked the depravity, corruption and incompetence of the failed lame duck president Donald J. Trump," he said. He added: “Together, we’ve affirmed that our task is not just to contain one president’s wickedness, but to heal the brokenness beneath."
Republican Bill Hagerty re-elected in Tennessee
Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty has secured re-election in Tennessee, defeating Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw to claim another six-year term, according to an NBC News projection.
Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., reacts on stage at a campaign rally at F&M Bank Arena, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026, in Clarksville, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)
Strategists sound off on Michigan Senate race
Democratic and Republican strategists shared their thoughts on how the midterms were unfolding, including the Senate race in Michigan, in an interview on CTV News Channel Tuesday night.
Marj Halperin, a Democratic strategist, said she believes Democrat Abdul El-Sayed will win in Michigan. While she canvassed through the state, Halperin said she spoke to uncertain voters, including Republican ones, and reminded them how the U.S. had been fighting with Canada.
"And of course, they know that this is an ally that matters to those border states. Michigan is suffering already from the trade war," Halperin said.
Evan Siegfried, a Republican strategist, said a number of issues will factor into the Wolverine state.
"In Michigan, the real question is two things: What do African (American) voters do and what do Jewish voters do?" he added.
Halperin said she met a Michigan woman who bought a new boat this year because she feared paying 12 per cent more for it due to the aluminum tariffs.
"They're very well aware of how the fight is harming their pocketbook but also kind of hurting our hearts, because Canada is friends of ours.”
Collins and tariffs
Republican Senator Susan Collins made headlines in Canada last month after she announced tariffs on some Canadian agricultural-sector goods would come down.
She took credit for the relief, saying they followed her discussions with U.S. Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer, Treasury Secretary Howard Lutnick – both of whom have been involved in negotiations with Canada – and senior Trump administration officials.
In turn, the Trump administration added new tariffs in their place.
Is Susan Collins in trouble in Maine?
An NBC News exit poll says Susan Collins' run as the longest-serving Republican woman in Senate history could be in jeopardy, because her support among young voters and independents has plummeted from 67% and 54%, respectively, in 2008, to 25% and 41% now.
The economy of the border state of Maine has been hit hard in the Canada-U.S. trade war. With 10% of votes counted so far in the Senate election, Democrat Troy D. Jackson holds a slight lead over incumbent Collins as of 9:40pm ET.
Democrats back independent candidate in Nebraska
Democrats took an unusual approach in Nebraska’s Senate race, backing Independent candidate Dan Osborn against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, despite Osborn distancing himself from the party.
Ricketts entered the contest in a state Trump won by more than 20 percentage points in 2024. Osborn, a U.S. Navy veteran and former union leader, drew on his previous campaign, when he came within seven percentage points of Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.
Presenting himself as a moderate, Osborn criticized both Trump and Democratic positions on immigration and gun rights, while Ricketts remained aligned with the president despite some policy disagreements.
Ricketts entered the contest in a state Trump won by more than 20 percentage points in 2024. Osborn, a U.S. Navy veteran and former union leader, drew on his previous campaign, when he came within seven percentage points of Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.
Presenting himself as a moderate, Osborn criticized both Trump and Democratic positions on immigration and gun rights, while Ricketts remained aligned with the president despite some policy disagreements.
Independent Nebraska Senate candidate Dan Osborn speaks at an election night watch party at the Embassy Suites by Hilton Omaha La Vista Hotel & Conference Center in La Vista, Neb., Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Bonnie Ryan)
Is Susan Collins in trouble in Maine?
An NBC News exit poll says Susan Collins' run as the longest-serving Republican woman in Senate history could be in jeopardy, because her support among young voters and independents has plummeted from 67% and 54%, respectively, in 2008, to 25% and 41% now.
The economy of the border state of Maine has been hit hard in the Canada-U.S. trade war. With 10% of votes counted so far in the Senate election, Democrat Troy D. Jackson holds a slight lead over incumbent Collins as of 9:40pm ET.
First-ever Black Republican governor elected
Republican Rep. Byron Donalds has defeated Democrat David Jolly in the race to become Florida’s next governor.
He will become Florida's first-ever Black governor and the country’s first Black Republican governor.
President Donald Trump listens as Republican gubernatorial candidate Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., speaks at a campaign rally at the Ocean Center, in Daytona Beach, Fla., Friday, Oct. 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
Republican Kevin Hern wins election to U.S. Senate from Oklahoma
Republican Kevin Hern won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing Oklahoma, defeating Democrat N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas.
Hern has served in the House since 2018 and was heavily favoured to beat Thomas, a nurse and military spouse.
Poll closing times
Here's a handy chart by the Associated Press on when and where polls are closing tonight. (All times Eastern)
Republican Andy Barr wins election to U.S. Senate from Kentucky
Republican Andy Barr won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing Kentucky, defeating Democrat Charles Booker.
Barr served in the U.S. House for seven terms before turning his eyes to the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell.
First female Black governor elected: CNN
Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms will win Georgia’s race for governor, CNN has projected.
If confirmed, she will become the first Black female governor in U.S. history.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate for Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottoms speaks during a campaign event on Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Macon, Georgia. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)
Democrats win in New Mexico, Colorado; Wyoming stays Republican
Democrat Ben Lujan won election to the U.S. Senate representing New Mexico, defeating Republican Larry E. Marker. Lujan, who was first elected to the Senate in 2020, previously served five terms in the U.S. House.
Democrat John Hickenlooper won election to the U.S. Senate representing Colorado, defeating Republican Mark Baisley. Hickenlooper’s victory secures himself a second term in the Senate.
Republican Harriet Hageman won election to the U.S. Senate representing Wyoming, defeating Democrat James Byrd. Hageman, a U.S. House representative since 2023, will succeed Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a 72-year-old Republican who is retiring after one term.
In Wyoming, a state where registered Republican voters outnumber Democrats 7 to 1, Hageman held a significant advantage over Byrd, a former state representative.
Mr. Veto meets the fiscal bomb
Donald Trump has already stated that if the Democrats win control of one or both chambers of Congress tonight, “I’ll become Mr. Veto... and eventually, after a month or two of getting all vetoed... They come over and you make a deal.”
Congress can override a presidential veto of its legislation, but only through a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Even in their wildest dreams, the Democrats do not believe they will come close to that threshold in these elections.
Trump will certainly keep his promise to become “Mr. Veto”. But whether the two sides will be able to “make a deal” is less obvious.
The fiscal bazooka
Congress’ most powerful weapon in a battle against the presidential veto is its control of the federal budget.
Congress, and Congress alone, decides how much the federal government may tax, borrow, and spend. And whatever powers a president may claim for himself, he can do nothing other than issue empty statements, unless he has the resources to press his words into reality.
The fiscal bomb
An impasse between a Congress and a president of different party stripes could hardly come at a worse time for the United States.
Under Trump’s own One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the federal government is required to operate under a debt ceiling of US$41.1 trillion. This is, to all practical purposes, an incomprehensible amount of money.
Yet, as of today, the national debt stands at US$40.17 trillion.
The U.S. will reach its “X Date”, when it collides with that legal limit, sometime next year. Either Congress and the president will find a way to “make a deal” to raise the legislated debt ceiling, or the U.S. will go into default.
The consequences of a default would be so catastrophic for the global economy, that no one believes it is remotely plausible that the American political class will not find a way to come to terms with one another.
But we live in a time when what was once politically unthinkable has now become commonplace.
The fiscal negotiations
A Democrat-led Congress has no end of priorities it would want the president to assent to, in exchange for a budget that keeps the country solvent. But Trump has no end of demands of his own, in exchange for that same relief.
And no one should underestimate the willingness of political actors to make other people endure pain.
If Congress and the president are represented by sensible adults in these negotiations, the American and global economies will muddle through the crisis. But sensible adults are less abundant in politics than they once were.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Democrats score first House flip in North Carolina
Democrats have picked up their first Republican-held House seat of the night in North Carolina's 11th district.
Jamie Ager has won an open seat resulting from the retirement of Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards.
The seat has been Republican for 14 years.
Edwards was censured by the House this year for engaging in inappropriate conduct toward two young female staffers in his office.
Democrats were hoping Ager’s farming background would appeal to rural voters in the district. He defeated Republican Jennifer Balkcom.
Democratic candidate for North Carolina's 11th congressional district Jamie Ager smiles, Monday, Aug. 11, 2025, in Fairview, N.C. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
Polls holding, for now
The polls leading up to this election had showed Democrats were headed for a very successful night, and so far the numbers are underscoring those results. Democrats, vastly outnumbered by Republicans in Florida, were running competitively in the state.
Democratic gubernatorial and senate candidates David Jolly and Angie Nixon, respectively, are tied or trailing by small numbers in a deep red state. North Carolina and Ohio are showing Democratic senate candidates comfortably ahead, which could portend what is to come for both parties tonight.
It all turns on the turnout
I am watching the voter turnout closely. The advance voting was quite heavy and higher than in 2022 - the last midterm election.
If the turnout is heavy, that will likely favour the Democrats and be indicative of how well they may do tonight. Outcomes are heavily driven by turnout and who votes. That said, parties that hold the White House traditionally get a rough ride in the midterms.
Republicans hold Florida
Republican Ashley Moody won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing Florida, defeating Democrat Angie Nixon.
Moody first took the seat when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tapped her to succeed Marco Rubio when he became U.S. secretary of state in 2025.
A former state attorney general, Moody will serve the last two years of the term Rubio won in 2022.
Nixon, a state lawmaker, is a democratic socialist who tested the strength of Democrats’ left flank in a state where the party has not won a U.S. Senate seat since 2012.
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Sen. Ashley Moody, R-Fla., at a campaign rally at the Ocean Center, in Daytona Beach, Fla., Friday, Oct. 30, 2026. . (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Trump vows to use veto power if Democrats win Congress
Trump said he is prepared to use his veto power and executive authority if Democrats take control of Congress in the midterm elections.
In a phone interview with CBS News, Trump called the veto his “ultimate power” and said he would embrace the nickname “Mr. Veto” if Democrats gain control of the House or Senate.
Despite polls suggesting potential Republican losses, Trump expressed confidence in his agenda, pointing to a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling involving Federal Trade Commission member Rebecca Slaughter.
Trump said the decision in Trump v. Slaughter “gives the president tremendous powers that it never had before.”
Democrat Roy Cooper wins N.C. Senate seat
Democrat Roy Cooper won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing North Carolina, defeating Republican Michael Whatley.
It has been 18 years since a Democrat held a Senate seat in North Carolina.
Cooper's victory gives Democrats a key pickup in their quest to wrest Senate control from Republicans. The seat was open because Republican Sen. Thom Tillis opted not to seek another term.
Cooper is a former governor and state attorney general. Whatley is a former state and national Republican Party chairman who ran with Trump's support.
Democrat Chris Pappas wins election to U.S. Senate from New Hampshire
Democrat Chris Pappas won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing New Hampshire, defeating Republican John Sununu. The race was one of a handful that will help determine which party controls the Senate and Pappas’ victory defended the key seat for the Democrats. Pappas, a member of the U.S. House, will replace Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who decided not to seek reelection. Sununu previously served in the Senate and House.
Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., speaks during a debate against Republican Senate candidate John E. Sununu, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, in Manchester, N.H. (AP Photo/Reba Saldanha)
Democrats win Senate races in Mass., R.I. and Ill.
Democrats have won U.S. Senate races in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Illinois – two of which are re-elections.
In Massachusetts, Ed Markey won re-election, defeating a primary challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton on his way to winning another term in the Senate, where he's served since 2013.
Democratic incumbent Jack Reed won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing Rhode Island, defeating Republican Raymond McKay. Reed will return to the Senate for a sixth term.
In Illinois, Democrat Juliana Stratton won election to the U.S. Senate, defeating Republican Don Tracy. Currently lieutenant governor, Stratton will succeed Sen. Dick Durbin, a Democrat who is retiring after five terms.
A person leaves a voting location after casting their ballot at the New Beginnings Community Church in Memphis, Tenn., on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)
The day after
As more polls close in the United States, Canadians and Americans are already asking what the ultimate outcome will mean, for the political settlement that will emerge from the midterm elections.
The 119th U.S. Congress
In the House of Representatives, the Republicans currently hold an effective five-seat majority (including one Independent Representative who caucuses with them) over the Democrats. All 435 House seats are being contested.
In the Senate, the Republicans currently hold an effective six-seat majority over the Democrats (including two Independent Senators who caucus with them). Of the 100 Senate seats, 35 are being contested.
Over the past two years, Donald Trump has, therefore, enjoyed a working majority of allies in both chambers of Congress, giving him freedom to pursue his policies with little restraint from the legislature.
The 120th U.S. Congress
Most polls predict that the Democrats are likely to secure a majority in the House of Representatives, and may secure a majority in the Senate. If so, the next Congress will be far more fraught, as legislators and the president battle to impose their will on the national agenda.
Weapons in a constitutional fight
The U.S. Constitution gives the president several weapons in this fight:
- a qualified veto over legislation
- control of federal institutions
- the power to pardon his allies (and, Trump argues, even himself) for federal crimes
- a near-monopoly on foreign affairs.
Congress’ constitutional weapons are still broader:
- the exclusive right to pass legislation
- the right to review and block senior federal appointments
- the power to impeach members of the Administration
- control of the federal budget.
The constitutional framers imagined that Congress would make the laws and the president would duly ensure that those laws were executed, and that both institutions would act as democratic checks on one another.
It is not clear whether they expected either institution might try to use its powers to try to contain or subjugate the other. But here we are.
The sun rises behind the U.S. Capitol on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Allison Robbert)
Florida Senate race neck-in-neck
With more than three quarters of votes counted, the Florida U.S. Senate race has a difference of only a single percentage point.
Republican incumbent Ashley Moody has 3,512,692, amounting to 49.6 per cent of votes counted so far.
Democrat Angie Nixon has 49.6 per cent of votes with 3,493,706 at 49.3 per cent.
The Associated Press reports 85 per cent of votes counted.
Florida Senate race neck-in-neck
With more than three quarters of votes counted, the Florida U.S. Senate race has a difference of only a single percentage point.
Republican incumbent Ashley Moody has 3,469,350, amounting to 49.7 per cent of votes counted so far.
Democrat Angie Nixon has 49.6 per cent of votes with 3,438,446 at 49.2 per cent.
The Associated Press reports 84 per cent of votes counted.
Democrat Jon Ossoff wins reelection to U.S. Senate from Georgia
Democrat Jon Ossoff won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing Georgia, defeating Republican Mike Collins. Ossoff was the only Senate Democrat seeking reelection in a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024, and holding his seat was critical to his party’s hopes of flipping control of the Senate. Ossoff was considered vulnerable at the outset of the 2026 election cycle. But he vastly outraised Collins, a two-term congressman who won Trump’s endorsement during an extended Republican primary, and he ran an aggressive campaign that gained national attention for his biting critiques of Trump.
Democratic candidate U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff speaks at his final campaign event before Election Day, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Decatur, Ga. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)
Early turnout surpasses 2022 midterms: AP
Millions of Americans have already cast their ballots, with early voting turnout surpassing the last midterm in 2022.
By afternoon on Election Day, the biggest issues affecting voting were weather-related, with flooding in Florida and parts of the Southwest prompting changes to polling locations and other emergency measures.
A problem with ballot scanners also was delaying vote counting -- though voting was able to continue -- in New York's suburban Westchester County, part of which is in a U.S. House district with a competitive race.
Trump slams Fox News over election coverage
Trump took to social media to lash out at Fox News Tuesday evening.
“FoxNews Ratings are way down (27%!) because they’re spending too much time covering the Trump Deranged Dumocrats!” Trump wrote on Truth Social
Trump went on to say that his “numbers are better than they have ever been,” adding that the new CNN poll stated that “‘TRUMP’ is at 99% among Republicans and, among Republican Presidents, 'TRUMP’ is at 53%, compared to Ronald Reagan at 18%, and Abraham Lincoln at 8%!”
“Also, why is Fox Corp. spending so much money donating to the Worst of the Worst, including Hakeem Jeffries, Jamie Raskin, Ted Lieu, Pete Aguilar, the California Dumocratic Party, the Dumocratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Dumocratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, the CHC Bold PAC, and the New Dumocrat Coalition Action Fund, among others?” he wrote.
“They’re way down, not because of me, but because they are AGAINST me! This happened once before, and Fox almost collapsed. It’s happening again!”
Georgia warns voters of fake texts saying polling locations changed
Election officials out of Fulton County, Ga. are warning voters of text messages falsely claiming that polling places had changed.
“Some Fulton County voters have reported receiving text messages regarding polling place changes,” Fulton County posted to social media on Tuesday.
The county advised voters to verify their polling place by checking the state’s website.
Fulton County is the most populous county in Georgia and home to the state’s capital, Atlanta.
The U.S. Senate race is between Democrat incumbent Jon Ossoff and Republican Mike Collins. Voters will also help decide Georgia’s governor, choosing between Democrat former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson.
Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz wins in Florida
Florida Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz won her election Tuesday to the U.S. House of Representatives, defeating Republican Brent Andersen.
She is the first Jewish congresswoman elected from Florida and served in the state’s House and Senate before winning federal office.
Democrat wins re-election in Virginia
Democratic incumbent Mark Warner won his election for to the U.S. Senate representing Virginia, defeating Republican Bert Mizusawa.
Warner’s victory comes in a state with some of the highest numbers of federal workers, who bore the brunt of U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to slash the government workforce early in his second term.
Uh oh for Republicans in Indiana?
We’re getting some early results in red state Indiana. District 5, which President Trump overwhelmingly won in 2024, is showing Republican incumbent Victoria Spartz trailing 2:1!
Thirty per cent of the vote has been counted so far and is primarily mail-in -- and early votes tend to lean democratic. The open question now is will conservative voters close the gap with day of voting, or do these numbers hold?
Associated Press map
Trump hasn’t committed to accepting the election results
Voting rights groups, Democrats and the U.S. Justice Department have been exchanging a flurry of legal filings over election processes -- court battles that may extend past Election Day into counting and certification of the results.
Election law experts said the administration’s legal arguments were unlikely to convince judges.
Trump also has ramped up his own equivocations about whether the election will be legitimate, as he has in the past. A week before Election Day, he wouldn’t commit to accepting the results.
“I will if they are honest,” he said.
Election law experts said the administration’s legal arguments were unlikely to convince judges.
Trump also has ramped up his own equivocations about whether the election will be legitimate, as he has in the past. A week before Election Day, he wouldn’t commit to accepting the results.
“I will if they are honest,” he said.
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