Canada braces for Trump fallout as Democrats win big in U.S. midterms

David Frum, a Canadian-American political analyst, indicated that tariffs played a big role in the Republicans' defeat in many midterm races Tuesday.

In an interview with CTV Power Play host Vassy Kapelos on Wednesday, Frum said a number of states are dependent on trade. For instance, he said a fifth of the jobs in Mississippi are trade dependent and Canada is one of its largest export markets.  South Carolina is where BMW and other major foreign car companies are assembling vehicles.

"All of these states feel what it means when the United States cuts itself off from international trade. People are put out of work, prices go up."

"The voter may not know this tariff did this to me, but they know the aggregate of all the tariffs plus the wars plus the corruption,” he added. “All of those things made things more expensive.”

The House Democratic leader is telling colleagues that his goal is to empower them to act decisively on affordability, accountability and American values in the next Congress.
Hakeem Jeffries spelled out his goals in a letter sent Wednesday, asking for their votes to serve as the next speaker.
“America is back!” Jeffries opened with, celebrating the party’s decisive victory in gaining the House majority.
Jeffries cited 10 specific areas where he said the Democratic caucus has delivered during his tenure. Those include exposing the harms that he said were included in Trump’s tax and spending cut bill, particularly the cuts to Medicaid. He also cited the efforts to fight for transparency on the Jeffrey Epstein files and opposition to the “reckless and costly war of choice in Iran.”
“The next chapter in our country’s 250-year journey begins today,” Jeffries said. 

In a news release Wednesday, the White House laid out what it believes is the “promises” made and kept to the American people as Trump and his allies scramble to respond to Republicans’ stunning electoral defeat.
Securing the border, launching massive deportation efforts and instituting tax cuts are listed as among the 127 policy actions taken so far in Trump’s second term.
“Every time the Radical Left, the Fake News, and the professional panic class have written President Trump’s obituary, they have been wrong. They will be wrong again,” the release says. 

Canada had more search interest in the midterm elections than any other country – even the United States – according to a Google Trends report.

After 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Canada was the top place searched for the elections, followed by the U.S., Austria, Singapore and other European countries.

Michigan, a major Canadian trading partner, was the state whose election results were searched the most, according to Google’s report.

Minnesota, Maine and Wisconsin – all states that border Canada – were runner ups to Michigan for Google search activity.

The 2026 U.S. midterm election was the most searched election since 2004, spiking over the 2024 U.S. general election. 

Hot races dominated U.S. searches after 11 p.m. ET Tuesday night, including Texas, Amy Acton, Nebraska’s Senate race, House election results and Keisha Lance Bottoms. 

James Blanchard, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada and former Michigan governor, said Republican voters rejected Trump's "reckless and harmful" leadership.

"One of the things that the voters have done … is they decided to punish their party for putting up with this, for enabling Donald Trump to govern in a way that's reckless and harmful and incompetent as well," Blanchard said in an interview on CTV News Channel on Wednesday. "Not just the wars but the way people are treated. So I think the Republicans decided to punish their party because they want to re-establish a sane Republican party.”

Blanchard lamented Trump running a "24/7 reality show.”

"This has been the darkest hour in American politics … I believe it's over, but we're all going to have to work really hard to restore sanity, civility, competence, humanity,” he said. 

Canadian Identity and Culture Minister Marc Miller said Canada has made it a point of "diplomacy" to engage at "all levels" with the U.S. government.

"Last night is just another example of the American people speaking … I think we’ve always fought for the best deal possible," Miller said, as he reacted to the results of the U.S. midterm elections Wednesday.

"The Americans have their reasons for what they did yesterday, and I think that’s their choice, and I obviously respect it." 

New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt, reacting to the results, said her province will keep fighting for the “best possible trade deal” and “delivering good paying jobs for New Brunswickers.”
“We are looking forward to building relationships with the newly elected governors, senators and congresspeople and expect that their leadership will result in improved trade conditions for N.B. entrepreneurs and workers,” Holt said.

Canada's Justice Minister Sean Fraser said they will watch the U.S. “with interest.”

“I think the strategy for Canada going forward remains the same — to defend our economic interests by diversifying trade partners, seeing if we can work through the challenges that we continue to have vis-a-vis the United States,” Fraser said.

“Congratulations to everyone who has put their name forward on the ballot, including specifically those who have been elected, but the work remains the same for Canada today and tomorrow."

Canada remains the top export market for most American states, with Kansas alone exporting US$2.7 billion in goods and services to Canada, according to data released in March, while hosting 99 Canadian-owned companies that employ 12,600 local workers.

This integrated network is anchored by Montreal-based Bombardier, which transformed its Wichita facility into its U.S. aviation and defence headquarters, alongside new innovations like Toronto-based fintech firm Railz deploying e-commerce platforms into the state's community banks.

A former senior White House trade adviser insists Trump is still in control despite the massive Republican losses in the midterm elections.

In an interview with CTV News Channel on Wednesday, Kelly Ann Shaw said the Democrats won't pass "meaningful legislation" because it "won't buy them votes" going into the 2028 presidential election.

Despite the Democrats' takeover of the U.S. Congress, Trump retains his veto and Senate rules enable Republicans to block most legislation.

"You're still having U.S. policy being directed by the president," Shaw said. "Congress is not going to pass bills into law that are enactable. And so pretty much everything that happens from here on out through 2028 is all going to be driven by the president himself. He's still very much … driving this car in terms of the direction of travel for U.S. policy, including how that interacts with relations with Canada." 

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says sweeping Democrat wins in the U.S. midterm elections are a vindication of her approach to the cross-border trade war.

Smith says her government has always opposed tariffs and the harms they cause on both sides of the border.

She says she hopes the midterm results are an opportunity to improve the relationship between Canada and the U.S.

As a result of the ongoing trade dispute, her government also announced a new policy today that it would be prioritizing Albertan and Canadian companies for small government contracts.

The executive director of Kansas Farmers’ Union says tariffs, trade war and Iran war drove the U.S. state towards the Democrats.

“People voted with their pocketbooks... but they also voted with morals, and they voted with decency and common sense,” Nick Levendofsky told CTV News channel Wednesday.

Levendofsky also said Kansas voted against the Republicans mainly because their candidate and incumbent Senator, Roger Marshall had “planted himself firmly beside the (U.S.) president.”

Kansas, a deeply Republican state, elected the pastor of a mega church Adam Hamilton, a Democrat, to represent them. Last time the state elected a democrat was before the Second World War in 1932.

Canada and Kansas share deep economic ties through major aerospace expansions and cross-border financial technology partnerships that drive billions in trade.

Political watchers say the Democrats’ landslide victory in the U.S. midterms, including in longtime Republican border states, is a “referendum on Trump.”

Of the 33 states that held Senate elections, the Democrats won 20 seats, including in five states that share a border with Canada. The party also won seats in the House of Representatives in every state bordered Canada, except for Alaska.

“When we look at the totality of what happened, it is absolutely astonishing,” Aurel Braun, international relations and political science professor at the University of Toronto, told CTVNews.ca on Wednesday.

“I would say it was a massacre.”

And then there was one.

Come January, Sen. Lisa Murkowski will be the last Republican in Congress who supported impeaching Trump during his first term.

It comes after Rep. David Valadao of California lost to Democrat Randy Villegas. Valadao had been a GOP survivor, defying the odds to win a series of tough races. But he couldn’t overcome Villegas and the overwhelming repudiation of Trump that voters delivered this week.

Ten House Republicans, including Valadao, voted to impeach Trump following the Capitol insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, and seven GOP senators voted to convict him.

Five remain, and all but Murkowski will be leaving Congress in January.

Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana lost his GOP primary earlier this year after being targeted by Trump. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine lost the general election last night.

In the House, Rep. Dan Newhouse of Washington is retiring. 

Two GOP lawmakers, Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan and current House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, have announced their intentions to run for Republican House minority leader.

The U.S. president, who has wielded significant influence in past House leadership contests, said he has no plans to get involved this time around.

“We’ll stay out of it,” Trump said, answering reporters’ questions at the White House.

He said Speaker Johnson was “fantastic” and said he did not ask him to step down as the leader of House Republicans.

“The people under him were fantastic, all good people,” Trump said. 

Much of the post-midterms speculation about potential Cabinet shuffles has centred on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a key architect of Trump’s unpopular war with Iran who is already shaping up to be a top target of congressional Democrats, who have called for his ouster.

Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he is not considering replacing Hegseth, saying “I think he’s doing a very good job.”

Hegseth has also been talked about as a potential appointed senator in Tennessee, where incumbent Sen. Marsha Blackburn, a Republican, won the governor’s race on Tuesday and could pick her interim successor.

 “I actually think he’d be very popular if he did that,” Trump said of Hegseth potentially filling Blackburn’s seat. 

With Democrats taking control of Congress, and Democratic governors winning power in numerous states, the midterm election results will “lead to some action on tariffs,” James Blanchard, former U.S. ambassador to Canada, predicted Wednesday.

“Most people in Congress feel that Canada is their best partner, friend and ally. But the Republicans haven't stood up much. The Democrats have. Now, we can probably tone down or eliminate most tariffs,” he told CTV News Channel.

A Democrat, Blanchard served as ambassador under former U.S. President Bill Clinton and was also the 45th governor of Michigan and member of the U.S. House of Representatives. He says that a slate of new Democratic governors will also boost strained relations with Canada, which have slumped following Trump’s trade war and annexation threats.

“These governors are really important to watch,” Blanchard said. “They're going to be able to help us restore some sanity to U.S policy with Ottawa and with the people of Canada, because they all know Canada's our friend, our partner, our ally. They can't believe how the White House has been treating Canada, so this is also a good development.”

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew is calling on U.S. politicians to work to remove tariffs on Canada and end the war with Iran after resounding Democratic party wins in the midterm elections.

On social media, Kinew congratulated Democrats for “absolutely dominating Trump” in Tuesday’s vote.

Kinew, who has been a vocal critic of Trump, says Americans have delivered a resounding rejection of the president’s actions.

The premier says Canadians are ready to rebuild the relationship and strengthen the economies of both countries.

Asked by a reporter if he's worried about being impeached again after the Democrats take control of Congress, Trump said: "Not even a little bit."

"I think it would destroy the Democrat Party if they did that," Trump said. "Impeachment for no reason."

"Our country is more successful now than in any time in its history," he added. 

Facing a rising cost of living and an unpopular war in Iran, voters were motivated by anger with the Trump administration in the midterm elections on Tuesday, according to a Republican strategist.

“Anger is the most abundant renewable energy source on the planet, and voters took it out and said to the party in power, Republicans and Donald Trump, ‘What have you done for me? It's time for a change,’” Evan Siegfried told CTV News Channel on Wednesday. “I think that the anger has reached a boiling point, and that's what we saw yesterday.”

Siegfried says that’s something U.S. Vice-President JD Vance will need to be mindful of if he wants to be the Republican nominee in the next presidential election. On Wednesday, Vance cited the divisive Iran war as being the main reason for the Republicans’ midterm defeat.

“JD Vance needs to distance himself from the president,” Siegfried said from New York. “Any vice-president, whether you're a Democrat or Republican, needs to distance themselves from the incumbent president if they’re running for president. That’s why Kamala Harris had severe troubles in 2024.”

The U.S. president was asked about the vice-president’s comments Wednesday that the Iran war was to blame for deep GOP losses and said, “I think it’s largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit, short term.”

Trump, speaking to reporters as he was showing off the construction of the White House ballroom he ordered, defended the conflict.

“The Iran thing, we had to do and we continue to do it,” Trump said. 

A political analyst in Georgia believes that the Democrats will focus on priorities including health care, inflation and education.

Amy Steigerwalt, department chair of political science at Georgia State University, was asked what could be on the Democrats' agenda after what she called the 'complete and utter sweep" of Congress.

"I think, nationally, we're going to see a lot of focus on health care and expansion, perhaps, of Medicaid," Steigerwalt said in an interview on CTV News Channel on Wednesday. "I think we're going to see a lot of ... trying to bring down costs more broadly with inflation. Probably we're going to see an uptick ... in taking away tariffs and moving back towards the types of trade agreements that we've had previously."

She expects House of Representatives and Senate to reclaim their powers

"We are likely to see the House and Senate trying to reassert those powers and make it clear that – on much of the policy-making, at least constitutionally – they are the actual leader and first mover in a lot of these discussions rather than the reactors.”

Some world leaders who have sparred with Trump are expressing hope that Republicans’ rout in the midterms will herald a less combative U.S. foreign policy but caution that it might not end the conflict with Iran or boost U.S. support for Ukraine.

Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said the majority of Americans had sent a clear message that “they have had enough of MAGA and now want a different course,” referring to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan.

Progressive politicians cast the results as part of a trend of liberal comebacks around the world.

Spain’s social democratic Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said Americans had voted “Against hate. Against machismo. Against climate denialism and against the privileges of the elites.”

But others in Europe cautioned that, with Trump in power for two more years, there would be no quick change to American foreign policy.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe says the results from last night’s U.S. midterm elections provide an opportunity for Canada to reset the relationship with its southern neighbour.

Moe, in a social media post, says Canada’s ongoing tariff war with the United States factored into last night’s vote.

He says tariffs drive up the cost of living on both sides of the border and that Canada is ready to restore free and fair trade.

Moe says he hopes the U.S. administration is prepared to do the same. 

“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.”

That’s the takeaway from U.S. Vice-President JD Vance, who posted a lengthy post-mortem on X Wednesday morning. He said internal polling suggested that, while Republican turnout was strong across the country, a significant portion of voters who supported Trump in 2024 voted Democrat in 2026.

The war, cost of living, a focus on putting “America First” and the U.S. relationship with Israel formed the pillars of voters’ rejection of the Trump administration, according to Vance, who cited an unnamed pollster.

“I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, ‘I told you so’: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country,” he wrote. 

Ontario Premier Doug Ford says he “couldn’t be happier” with the results of the U.S. midterm elections because the result sends a message to U.S. President Donald Trump, whose tariffs have hammered the province’s economy.

“The American people spoke, and I couldn't be happier,” Ford told reporters Wednesday. “They can blame everyone they want, but President Trump has to look in the mirror, take responsibility for the results of last night.”

Trump’s tariffs have battered Ontario’s economy and Ford has repeatedly spoken out against them.

Speaking with reporters about Trump, he added "I can't stand the guy." 

Rather than a win for the Democrats, the results of Tuesday's midterms can be interpreted as support for democratic process and opposition to the actions of the Trump administration, says a former U.S. ambassador to Canada.

"It's a good day for democracy, and the Democratic party just happened to be the recipient of the exercise of the vote," Gordon Giffin told CTV News Channel Wednesday. He said the results indicate a rejection of policies and conduct of the current government and the president's supporters in Congress.

As for what's next, Giffin predicted a "number of Republicans (will) begin to worry about their own self-interest and their own self-preservation, which means being less devoted to Donald Trump, and more responsive to the constituents that elected them." 

In a lengthy online post, the U.S. vice-president seemingly sought to distance himself from election results seen as a referendum on Trump that featured big Republican losses across the country.

"The reason we lost is the war," Vance wrote, adding, "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest." 

Quebec Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon says his government will launch a diplomatic offensive south of the border following the U.S. midterm elections.

St-Pierre Plamondon says he believes there’s a better chance to find ways to resolve the trade war after an election in which the Democrats regained control of Congress.

He says Canada and Quebec will have an easier time finding allies to ease tensions after a result that’s widely viewed as a rejection of U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies. 

Trump's trade war may have played a roll in an unexpected shift in Mississippi, according to The Atlantic writer David Frum.

In a message on X, Frum drew connections between Canada and the southern state, saying 20 per cent of employment in Mississippi is tied to international trade.

"Top destination for Mississippi exports? Trump arch-enemy, Canada," he wrote. 

In his victory speech in Michigan's Senate race, Abdul El-Sayed used the middle name Trump often invoked while telling voters they should fear the progressive Democrat.

"My name is Abdulrahman Mohamed Sayed, and I am so proud and honoured to stand here as your senator-elect from the great state of Michigan," he said. 

After Democrats take control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate in January, they could introduce legislation aimed at reining in Trump’s tariffs. Trump, however, retains presidential veto powers that can only be overridden with two-thirds support in both chambers of Congress.

“They did not win veto-proof majorities in both the House and the Senate, so any legislation that they pass, if it does not have two-thirds majority support, President Donald Trump can actually veto that legislation,” CTV News political analyst Eric Ham said on Wednesday.

Securing a two-thirds supermajority would require significant bipartisan support from the Democrat’s Republican rivals. Democrats would also need at least 60 votes in the Senate to override any Republican attempts at filibustering proposed legislation. While that’s a steep hill for the Democrats to climb, Ham notes that with voters frustrated by rising prices, several Republicans previously crossed party lines to support resolutions aimed at overturning tariffs on Canada.

“Democrats said, once they take back control of Congress, the first thing that they’re going to do is rescind all of the president’s tariffs, as well as trying to revoke many of his trade authorities,” Ham told CTV’s Your Morning. 

"We saw a number of Republicans actually cross the aisle to support Democrats in passing many of those resolutions [before], so I think we could see Republican lawmakers also work with Democrats to get things done.” 

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson will not continue as Republican leader in the new Congress, according to multiple reports.

NBC News cited four sources who were on a call with Johnson when he told his staff the news Wednesday morning.

The Associated Press also confirmed Johnson will not seek election as House Republican leader.

Canada's main stock index jumped nearly 500 points, after midterm elections in the United States saw the Democrats take control in both houses of Congress.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 480.11 points at 36,012.39.

The Canadian dollar traded for 71.68 cents US compared with 71.46 cents US on Tuesday.

While Donald Trump’s name did not appear on any ballots, U.S. midterms are indicative of voters’ opinions of the current president, according to presidential historian Allan Lichtman.

“Every midterm is a vote up or down on the performance of the president,” he told CTV News Channel Wednesday from Bethesda, Md.

While some were surprised by Tuesday’s results, Lichtman said the blue wave was to be expected.

“When a presidential approval rating is as low as Donald Trump’s, on average, the party holding the White House loses.”

In this case, he said, there were “four strikes” against Trump: the war in Iran; the economy and inflation; threats to democracy; and corruption. The latter two items refer to beliefs of some Americans that Trump has used or will use his presidential power “to enrich himself and his family,” he said.

Democratic candidates made up significant ground among key demographic groups in the 2026 midterms, according to The AP Voter Poll, reversing many of the gains U.S. President Donald Trump made with the traditional Democratic coalition in the 2024 presidential election.

The AP Voter Poll, a sweeping survey of more than 100,000 voters in all 50 states, showed that young voters swung sharply left. 

Hispanic voters, who shifted toward Trump in 2024 as well, moved toward Democrats this year, as did Black voters – particularly Black men. Many Moderates— who overwhelmingly said Congress was not doing enough to put checks and balances on the presidency — backed Democratic candidates nationally and were important for Democratic victories in several key Senate races. 

And as most voters said inflation had caused them and their family at least “moderate” hardship over the past year, voters with a 2025 household income of less than $50,000 also shifted away from Republicans, compared to 2024.

A political watcher in Canada says the Democrats’ sweeping midterm election victory in the United States likely won’t provide immediate relief from tariffs.

Donald Wright, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick, said U.S. President Donald Trump still has the executive powers he used to enact the tariffs and he isn’t likely to back off because of election results.

Instead, he said, the president could take the result as an excuse to punish states like Maine by ramping up the levies on Canadian goods. 

For his part, Prime Minister Mark Carney said the two sides have “made progress” after the U.S. backed down on some of its demands. 

Trump has no public events scheduled for Wednesday, according to the White House, following Democrats' resounding midterm election wins that will give them control of the House and the Senate for his final two years in office.

Trump had all but guaranteed the results would be seen as a referendum on him by repeatedly urging voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot." But the results showed how voters rejected his handpicked candidates while airing widespread concerns about high costs following the Iran war and his punishing tariff policy.

The results leave Trump -- who watched returns at the White House with his advisers and members of his Cabinet -- with dramatically diminished political capital at home and abroad.

"While the outcome of this midterm is not what we'd hoped and fought for, a new battle is just beginning," Republican Speaker Mike Johnson said overnight on social media.
Johnson is expected to face a challenge from Republican rivals if he tries to stay on as GOP leader in the new Congress, which Democrats will control after the midterm rout. He did not immediately address his plans.
He said, "come 2028, we WILL take back the House and we will finish the job."

U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham said Wednesday a sweeping victory for Democrats in U.S. midterm elections that weakened President Donald Trump represented an opportunity for the world to "unite" around resolving cost-of-living issues.
"President Trump has accepted the results, and I feel the world has an opportunity now to unite around the issue that is affecting us all, and that's the cost of living," Burnham told reporters. Burnham added that prices could not be reduced until the U.S. war in Iran "is resolved."

At the urging of U.S. President Donald Trump, Republicans in eight states redrew the boundaries of dozens of congressional districts over the past year while angling for an edge that could help them hold onto a slim House majority in a tough midterm election.
Ultimately, it didn't work.
Republicans lost most of the Democratic-held seats they had targeted to flip, lost others they had banked on retaining and got swept out of power by a Democratic surge fuelled by voter dissatisfaction with Trump, the economy and the war with Iran.
The Republican redistricting plan fell flat in Alabama, Florida and Texas. It got scuttled by courts in Missouri and then firmly defeated by its voters Tuesday. And it got offset in California, where a retaliatory Democratic redistricting flipped previously Republican-held seats. 

Iran's supreme leader warned on Wednesday that the Middle East war would widen if the U.S. resumes its attacks, dismissing hopes of a policy shift in Washington after midterm elections dealt a blow to U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump has recently threatened to renew the war against Iran amid similar rhetoric from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but on Tuesday he suffered a resounding defeat in polls that will strip his Republicans of control over Congress.
The results could constrain Trump's ability to enact his agenda, though the president retains the power to order new strikes.
Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned that if the United States did choose further military action, the scope of the war would widen, without elaborating. 

A California measure to tax the net worth of billionaires that divided liberal leaders nationally and triggered one of the most expensive ballot fights in state history was too early to call Wednesday morning as the vote tally continued.
Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5 per cent tax on the wealth of Californians whose net worth exceeds US$1 billion, with most of the revenue dedicated to replacing federal funding cuts to healthcare. The measure left ultra-rich people, some of whom spent heavily to defeat it, scrambling to figure out whether they would pay the tax or leave California.

The United States' first Black female governor, the first Indigenous female governor, the first Indigenous female senator and the first openly gay male U.S. senator had been declared winners on Tuesday.
By early Wednesday, the first Muslim U.S. senator was added to the list of barrier-breaking milestones.
The astonishing Democratic wave also means the United States will likely have its first-ever Black speaker of the House.
"These firsts show how our country is changing," Alexis Anderson-Reed, president and CEO of State Voices, a network of advocates for civic engagement and equity in democracy, said in an email. 

U.S. stock futures surged Wednesday after the U.S. midterm election yielded Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress.

The results usher in a new era of congressional resistance to the agenda aggressively pursued by U.S. President Donald Trump. One overarching theme was that divided government might not be such a bad thing.

Markets generally prefer that control of Washington be split between Republicans and Democrats. That is seen as offering less risk of sweeping policy changes that could upend the economy.

"The magnitude of the gains for the Democrats in the midterms does not change too much for the near-term policy outlook, given the party still lacks a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and President Trump has veto power to block legislation," Stephen Brown of Capital Economics said in an analysis.