TERREBONNE, Que. - Less than an hour outside downtown Montreal, election signs with the faces of Bloc and Liberal candidates running in Terrebonne are displayed everywhere, including on lawns, storefronts and even lamp posts.
The Liberals are throwing everything they can behind the traditional Bloc riding they won by a single vote in the 2025 federal election.
That decision was ultimately overturned by the Supreme Court after Bloc candidate and former MP Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné alleged at least one Bloc voter did not have her mail-in ballot counted. The court’s decision triggered Monday’s byelection.
Terrebonne, a riding northeast of Montreal, has long been considered a Bloc and Parti Québécois stronghold.
Éric-Antoine Ménard, the head of NorthStar Public Affairs in Quebec, says the last time the provincial Liberals won the riding was 1973, and the last time the federal Liberals won the riding in an uncontested vote was in 1980 — when Jimmy Carter was the U.S. president.
“This is a riding that is so blue that you know, if it were any bluer, we’d be in an episode of The Smurfs,” said Ménard. “Supporting the Liberals in Terrebonne, historically, has been kind of like wearing a (Toronto Maple) Leafs jersey at the Bell Centre.”
But the Liberals want to turn it red and firm up a majority status in Parliament. Voters have shifted away from the Bloc in recent years since former NDP leader Jack Layton’s so-called 2011 orange wave.
“What that tells us is that it’s possible the voters of that riding can swing, and they can swing hard,” Ménard said.
In this byelection, Ménard says the changing and more unstable Canada-U.S. relationship could help Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste.
He says that voters in Terrebonne care about sovereignty and stability, two things that have been threatened by the current U.S. administration.
“There is a crisis going on with our neighbour. Their democracy does not look good to voters. I think that has an impact on people,” Ménard said. “I think Quebecers, by and large right now, just looking at competence over anything else … They’re looking at stability.”
After five floor-crossings, including former Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu on Wednesday, the Liberal government now has 171 seats. If they win Terrebonne, as well as the two other Ontario byelections being held April 13, Prime Minister Mark Carney will have a two-seat majority in the House of Commons.
Asked for his reaction to Wednesday’s floor-crossing, Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet, who was in Terrebonne campaigning, said it was proof of the majority government the Liberals wanted.
“It is no more part of the campaign in Terrebonne,” Blanchet said. “No one can come here and say, ‘you should give us a majority.’ They have it. They have it already.”
If the Bloc lose the riding, Ménard said there is likely to be some internal “soul searching.”
“What it means for the Bloc is they’re going to be benched by Quebecers,” he said. “Quebecers are going to say: ‘It’s not that we don’t like you, but … we want to date somebody else right now.’”
Get out the vote
While Blanchet was in the riding on Wednesday, the prime minister was there again Thursday.
Many voters who spoke with CTV News on Thursday said they believe the vote will be tight. Some were confident the Bloc would be sending an MP to Parliament, while others said it was simply to close to call.
Several voters also said they had yet to make up their minds on who they wanted to represent them in Ottawa.
Louise Leduc lives in Terrebonne and says she would have liked to turn the page on the election. Voter fatigue she says, is sitting in.
“I think it’s too much to do another election,” she said. “People have their thinking, their ideas, and maybe a few will change, but I don’t think millions will.”
Leduc said she expects the vote will be close but isn’t confident the result will be any different this time around.
Why does this riding matter?
In addition to Terrebonne, the Ontario ridings of Scarborough Southwest and University–Rosedale are also holding byelections April 13.
The two Ontario ridings are both considered safe Liberal seats, but Terrebonne is expected to be a much closer race.
Liberal Strategist Scott Reid said winning all three ridings would give Carney’s government a huge boost.
“That takes them to 174 they are comfortably in majority territory,” Reid said. “A majority government in these turbulent times equals a degree of stability.”
But strategists are also quick to point out that the impact of that boost is less than it would have been had Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu not crossed the floor Wednesday. Now instead of being a must win riding for the Liberals, Terrebonne is “the icing on the cake.”
“A Terrebonne victory just becomes sort of icing on the cake here,” said Liberal Strategist and Senior Advisor at Northstar Public Affairs Sabrina Grover.
“I think it gives them the ability to control the agenda and control what they need to get done in the house.”
The riding saw a 68 per cent voter turnout in last year’s election, that Liberal Tatiana Auguste won by a single vote, over Bloc incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagne.
Preliminary data from Elections Canada shows that an estimated 18,200 people voted in Terrebonne during advanced polling, the most out of the three ridings. During the 2025 general election, Elections Canada reported that about 20,000 advanced ballots were cast during advanced polling.
The pivotal riding has been targeted by the protest group Longest Ballot Committee, which has previously said it is pushing for electoral reform. As a result, there are 48 candidates on the ballot, including 41 people without a party banner.
To make it easier for voters, Elections Canada has opted to go with a so-called “adapted” ballot, where individual voters write in the name of their preferred candidate, instead of simply picking a name off a long list. A similar model was chosen in Alberta’s Battle River-Crowfoot byelection last August, where Conservative Leader Poilievre beat out 213 other candidates to win the seat.
Liberals running high in Quebec
New numbers by Nanos Polling show the Liberals holding a commanding lead over the Conservatives, with Carney ahead of Poilievre as the preferred prime minister.
The polling, released Tuesday, has the Liberals sitting at 45.7 per cent, the Conservatives at 30.5 the NDP at 12.5 per cent, the Bloc at 5.6 per cent, the Green Party at 4.2 per cent and the Peoples Party at 1.1 per cent.
The Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research Corporation, Nik Nanos, says the Liberals and Carney have the wind in their sails heading into the byelections.
“In the province of Quebec, critically, the Liberals have been trending up over the last four weeks, a lot of it coming out of the Davos speech and the comments from Mark Carney about the rupture with the United States,” Nanos said.
Similar data compiled by the polling aggregator 338 Canada, shows the Liberals sitting at 44 per cent in Quebec, ahead of the Bloc at 28 per cent, the Conservatives at 19 per cent and the NDP at five per cent.
The Liberals, according to the website, are currently projected to be safe, or likely win 46 Quebec electoral districts compared to the Bloc in 22, the Conservatives in nine and the NDP in one.
In Terrebone, 338 Canada has the race too close to call with a toss-up projected between the Liberals and Bloc.
