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Ford Weathering Storm as Torontonians Split on Claims, 
Cause and Motives of Current Controversy 	
Mayor Ford Down But Not Out

Toronto, ON – With news of an alleged video of Toronto Mayor Rob Ford using crack-cocaine alongside drug dealers dominating the discussion at Toronto City Hall and the media airwaves, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CTV News and CP24 reveals that Torontonians are split on whether they believe the claims made by the Ford brothers, and what the motives are behind the current controversy.
The poll was conducted during a week of ongoing national and international media attention that witnessed staff firings and defections in the Mayor’s Office, more unnamed source allegations, calamitous press conferences and a declaration by the Mayor that it was “business as usual” at City Hall. 
And while that might be a stretch, to say the least, there is one thing that is even less so: factual confirmation and evidence, or personal attribution and named witnesses to allegations that are being made, in some cases, going back thirty years. This appears to have created a very distinct line in the sand for citizens and voters watching the spectacle, as half side with the mayor in saying that what is happening is a media vendetta and pile on, versus the other half which believes there is fire where there is smoke. 
For a mayor that, on one hand, seems to be writing a new manual on how to survive a political maelstrom, and on the other courting half of Torontonians who are not sold on the media bill of goods, it is important to note that one third of residents of the City of Toronto say that, if an election were held tomorrow, they would vote to re-elect Mayor Rob Ford. 
In response to the allegations against him, in a recent press conference Mayor Ford has said that he does not use crack cocaine. The data reveal that half (49%) of Torontonians believe him, while the other half (51%) doesn’t. The fault line down the middle, overall, is largely a function of the downtown vs. suburbs dichotomy that has existed throughout Mr. Ford’s tenure. Just four in ten (40%) downtown residents believe Mayor Ford, while significantly higher proportions of residents in Scarborough (48%), York/East York (48%), North York (54%) and Etobicoke (61%) believe him.
Mayor Ford, and his brother Councillor Doug Ford, have said this is yet another example of a persistent agenda by the Toronto Star and other media outlets to bring him down because they don’t like his agenda. Fully one half (50%) of Torontonians ‘agree’ (20% strongly/29% somewhat) with the Mayor and his brother, while the other half (50%) ‘disagree’ (30% strongly/20% somewhat) with the Ford brothers. Agreement with the Ford brothers is highest in Etobicoke (57%) and North York (56%), followed by Scarborough (49%), the Old City of Toronto (45%) and York/East York (41%).
Many Torontonians are not even sure that the video even exists. Two media outlets claim to have seen the video, but attempts to contact the alleged owner of the video in the past week in order to purchase the video have failed. Nearly half (45%) of residents ‘believe the video is a hoax and part of a conspiracy to discredit the mayor’. However, a slim majority (55%) of residents ‘believe the video exists and is real’. Downtown residents (63%) are most likely to believe the video exists, followed by those living in York/East York (57%), Scarborough (55%), and North York (51%). Just 46% of Etobicoke residents – where Mr. Ford lives – believe the video exists, meaning more (54%) think it is a hoax. 
Impact on the Mayor…
The mayor has defied calls for his resignation and has said that he intends to stand for re-election, letting the residents of Toronto decide his fate. One in three (34%) Torontonians say that, if an election were held tomorrow, they would vote to re-elect Rob Ford as Toronto’s Mayor. While this is down 9 points from the 43% of poll respondents who said they voted for him last time (which closely aligns with the 47% of the vote he actually received), it appears that there still exists a significant proportion of the population that continues to support Rob Ford. So while the mayor is certainly down, he is not out. 
Intention to vote for the mayor in the next election is highest in Etobicoke (45%) and North York (41%), but much lower in places like Scarborough (32%), York/East York (29%) and downtown (24%). Men (38%) are more likely than women (30%) to say that they would vote for Mayor Ford in the next municipal election, and his support is much higher among those aged 55+ (40%) than it is among residents aged 35 to 54 (32%) or 18 to 34 (27%). 
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between May 29th to 31st, 2013, on behalf of CTV News and CP24. For this survey, a sample of 530 Torontonians, from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.  In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/-5 percentage points had all adults in Toronto been surveyed.  All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
	John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid 
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002		

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