Polls disagree about which party leads election race

Two separate polls released Friday are painting very different pictures of how the country’s upcoming election could turn out.

One poll, conducted by Mainstreet Technologies, suggests the Conservatives now hold a strong lead among among decided voters. A different poll released by Forum Research suggests that the NDP currently lead in support across the country and could form a minority government.

Both polls were conducted by telephone surveys around the same time in July and asked respondents who they would vote for if the election were held today. However the Mainstreet poll surveyed roughly five times as many people.

The Mainstreet poll, commissioned by Postmedia, surveyed 5,147 Canadians across the country by telephone from July 20-21. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.37 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

It found that the Conservative Party is enjoying a bump in popularity in the wake of boosted funding for childcare benefits, with 38 per cent support among decided voters. The NDP sit in second place with 27 per cent, while the Liberals sit in third spot with 25 per cent. The Green Party holds six per cent support, followed by the Bloc Quebecois at four per cent. One in five Canadians (20 per cent) say they are still undecided as to who they will vote for.

“It’s Christmas in July for Conservatives as the immediate response to UCCB cheques is overwhelmingly positive for Stephen Harper, Mainstreet Research president Quito Maggi said in a statement released with the poll. “It appears that along with recent economic turmoil in Asia and Europe and a strong desire to maintain balanced budgets has increased the chances of a Harper re-election this fall.”

The Mainstreet poll found that 38 per cent of those who followed the Universal Child Care Benefit boost closely plan to vote Conservative. That compares to 25 per cent support for the Conservatives among those who were not following the issue at all.

The Conservatives have also opened up a big lead in Ontario, with 45 per cent of decided voters, the poll found. The Liberals sit at 28 per cent support, while the NDP sit at 21 per cent. The lead for the Tories appears to come from the 905, where Conservative support is strong. In the 416 area, the Liberals lead with 30 per cent support, followed by the NDP at 26 per cent and the Conservatives at 24 per cent.

Elsewhere in the country, the poll found strong support for the NDP in Quebec (36 per cent) and British Columbia (44 per cent), while the Conservatives continue to enjoy strong support in Alberta and the prairies (52 per cent) and the Liberals lead in the Atlantic provinces (38 per cent).

The poll found that the top issue in the election is likely to be the economy, with 90 per cent of respondents saying it’s important to maintain a balanced budget and 49 per cent saying it’s very important.

While the Mainstreet poll shows the Conservatives in the lead, the smaller poll released by Forum Research showed almost the opposite.

That poll, which sampled 1,208 Canadians across the country by random phone survey, found the New Democrats sitting at 34 per cent support across the country, followed by the Liberals at 29 per cent support and the Conservatives with just 28 per cent. It found the Bloc Quebecois to have five per cent support and the Green Party to have four per cent.

While the Forum Poll agreed for the most part with Mainstreet’s assessment of where the parties find their strongest support, it disagreed about Ontario. While Mainstreet found the Conservatives lead in the province, the Forum poll shows the three top parties nearly tied, with the Liberals leading (33 per cent), followed by the Conservatives and NDP, each with each with 31 per cent.

The Forum poll also found that NDP Leader Tom Mulcair continues to be the most popular party leader, with 50 per cent approval from the electorate. It found Justin Trudeau sitting at 38 per cent. Stephen Harper is the least popular party leader according to the poll, with just 27 per cent approval.

The Forum poll was conducted July 19-20 and is considered accurate to within plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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