After yesterday's Ipsos-Reid poll I wonder if the Rob Ford camp still thinks this race for mayor "is over." The campaign is surprised by the latest numbers that show George Smitherman and Ford in a statistical tie with 25% still undecided. This morning on CP24, Ford dismissed the Ipsos-Reid poll and his campaign maintains its own polling shows Ford in the lead. He says the choice for voters is to "continue the gravy train" or vote for him and put an end to it. Ford said he is not upset that some people oppose his plans because "we have a lot of supporters and I can't wait for election day."
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For the second time in this campaign, a media poll on the race changes the dynamic. Five hours after the poll came out Rocco Rossi, with only four per cent support, pulled out. He didn't endorse any other candidate, but he did say that this is now a two man race. The Rossi campaign tried every trick in the book to catch up, and it just wasn't happening. Rossi was graceful as he announced his withdrawal and this morning he has done a series of media interviews to explain his reasons.
On CP24 this morning, Rossi told Stephen LeDrew Torontonians need to focus on the choice between Ford and Smitherman and that he was getting in the way of that. Rossi said he has no regrets and now Toronto can make a clear choice. The Rossi campaign has always said that many of his supporters will go to Ford and this morning Rossi told me he thinks his Conservative supporters will go to Ford and his Liberal friends will move to Smitherman. Rossi will be missed in the last week of debates. His humour and quick mind gave many debates their best moments.
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Attention will now shift to Joe Pantalone. The rain in Toronto this morning forced Pantalone to move his big fiscal plan announcement inside to his campaign headquarters.
Pantalone told reporters he can run Toronto without cutting services. The Ipsos-Reid poll has Pantalone at 11 per cent, and there is no indication that his campaign is getting the traction needed to win. All the attacks on Smitherman won't help if voters are lining up behind either Ford or Smitherman. In Toronto, as the left wing candidate, he should have a core vote of close to 20 per cent. Right now he has only half that and faces the prospect of an even reduced base considering its options. On CP24, LeDrew asked Pantalone three times if he will stay in the race. Each time Pantalone said he is "planning to be in the race." That carefully worded phrase on his future tells me Pantalone is still deciding what to do.
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The Ipsos-Reid poll gives Smitherman a one point lead of 31-30, but when you look at those committed voters who say they will definitely turn out on election day, the numbers change. Then, according to Ipsos, Smitherman jumps ahead with 42 per cent compared to Ford's 29 per cent. Smitherman says he is trying to build a coalition that will win him the election and allow him to be an effective mayor. On CP24 this morning, he told LeDrew that he wants to use the opportunity to bring all members of council together to put Toronto's books in balance if he wins. In the coming days, look for Smitherman to continue to use endorsements to build on that idea of a coalition of like minded voters who prefer Smitherman's vision. Tomorrow, Smitherman will speak to the Toronto Board of Trade.
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This morning Ipsos released another question from the poll. This one is about trust and it shows that Ford has the trust of more Torontonians than any other candidate. Here is how Ipsos president John Wright puts it:
When asked which candidate they trust the most, a greater proportion of Torontonians, overall, choose Rob Ford (28 per cent) over George Smitherman (21 per cent), Joe Pantalone (17 per cent) and Rocco Rossi (six per cent).
Among those most certain to actually go out and vote on election day, Rob Ford scores the highest with 31 per cent choosing him followed by George Smitherman (25 per cent), Joe Pantalone (23 per cent) and then Rocco Rossi (six per cent).
