Fall is upon us and it’s going to be a “comfortable” one in the Greater Toronto Area, according to a climatologist with Environment Canada.
Autumn officially arrives just after 8 p.m. on Tuesday.
David Phillips said it already looks, feels, and maybe even tastes like it.
“You saw this morning in Toronto, the temperature got down to below eight degrees. It hasn’t been that cool since the long weekend in May … four months ago,” he said, adding that there is also some wind, not necessarily enough for a wind chill, though, but it can be felt.
“It’s sweater weather, and not muscle shirts and tank top weather.”
Fall kicking off with sunny skies: Phillips
The first couple of weeks of the new season, Phillips says, will be drenched in sunshine with nary a cloud in the sky, though the temps won’t quite be summer-like.
“Typically in Toronto at this time of the year, the daytime high would be about 19 degrees. Well, we’re going to see temperatures around the 20-degree mark, 22, so pleasant, but no rain,” he said.
The long-time climatologist went on to say that this season won’t go “from sweat to slush.”
He said October is expected to be warmer and drier than normal, with November and December also warmer, though “maybe a little wetter than normal.”
“Our models are showing that because of warmer water temperatures, more Pacific air, southerly air, and less Arctic air, that we’re going to enjoy a great fall. … My sense is there’s a lot of summery weather left in the air,” he said.
In 2025, the first frost of the season wasn’t seen until early November. Phillips says he predicts that will be similar this time around as well.
El Niño will affect fall weather, climatologist says
He added that the El Niño climate phenomenon is also impacting precipitation in the region, resulting in few fewer significant storms, including hurricanes. The World Meteorological Organization says this weather pattern is “characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific.”
“There’s never been (an El Niño) warmer than this and it’s probably going to help to make our fall warmer than normal,” Phillips said.
One of the best parts of the fall season, Phillips said, is that it’s not necessary to jack up the A/C, nor turn on the heater. On average, September is three to four degrees cooler than August, while October is about eight degrees cooler than September.
Phillips went on to say that due to the unusually rainy summer in the region, capped off by the Sept. 2 deluge, the leaves haven’t yet begun in earnest to change colour.
He said he expects the peak season will come a little later this year, maybe up to two weeks, probably sometime after Thanksgiving but before Remembrance Day.
“(It was a) very wet summer, so (the leaves are) going to take a while to change. So there was no indication of the technicolour landscape that it was fall, but we know it’s here,” he said.
