TORONTO -- The Conservatives appeared to be more than holding their own in the key battleground province of Ontario on Tuesday as early results showed the New Democrats gnawing away at Liberal support.

The results would portend a stunning setback for Stephane Dion's Liberals in a province where economic turbulence had buffeted Prime Minister Stephen Harper's campaign and a key ballot question became which leader was best able to steer through the tumult.

With almost half the province's polls counted, the Conservatives, which again will form the government, had won 41 seats -- including the former Liberal ridings of Oakville and Halton, which was held by maverick Garth Turner -- and were leading in 10 others.

The Liberals trailed the Conservatives -- leading in nine ridings with 30 elected.

But the night -- at least in northern Ontario -- belonged to Jack Layton's NDP, which stole five seats from the struggling Liberals.

Provincewide, the New Democrats won 15 seats and were leading in one.

Layton won his seat easily.

At dissolution, the Liberals held 51 of Ontario's 106 ridings, the Conservatives 41 and the NDP 12. There were two vacancies.

Early results suggested the Conservatives would end the night with 10 more seats in Ontario, the Liberals would be down 12, and the NDP up four.

Among the ridings the NDP took from the Liberals were Nickel Belt and Thunder Bay-Superior North.

Health Minister Tony Clement, who squeaked by with just 28 votes in the last election, easily won his riding of Parry Sound-Muskoka.

"That was a bit hair-raising last time when we had 11 full days of recounts, so it's nice to get this one over actually on election night," Clement said.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty also kept the riding of Whitby-Oshawa.

Another key race was in Haldimand-Norfolk, a riding held by Conservative Immigration Minister Diane Finley, who faced a tough fight against Liberal and Independent candidates.

Finley's local leadership was pilloried by many voters in the east end of the riding, home to Caledonia, the site of an ongoing First Nations land-claims dispute that has at times turned violent.

However, with the opposition vote splitting, Finley appeared poised to beat back a determined challenge from her Liberal counterpart.

Independent Gary McHale, who enjoyed strong support from some residents of Caledonia, trailed far behind.

Ontario, always critical to the outcome of any federal election, took on even greater prominence with Prime Minister Stephen Harper appearing to stumble in Quebec, where his Conservatives had high hopes for a breakthrough.

The province has bled tens of thousands of auto-sector and other manufacturing jobs over the past few years amid a slumping economy in the United States.

Premier Dalton McGuinty said people in Ontario were feeling "a tremendous amount of uncertainty and anxiety" and his Finance Minister Dwight Duncan even warned of the province could tilt into deficit.

McGuinty has spent the past couple of years fighting with the Harper government over "fairness" in federal transfers, arguing Ottawa has been short-changing Ontario by $11.8 billion a year.

Flaherty had warned a few months ago the province was a terrible place to invest in.

More than eight million voters in Ontario were eligible to cast a ballot.

While turnout numbers were not immediately available, about two-thirds voted in the January 2006 election.