Notes from the campaign trail: It's now clearly a two party race

The Progressive Conservative strategists sat Doug Ford down at a table with a farm couple this morning in the riding of Sarnia-Lambton. There was no teleprompter just Ford being himself with a cup of coffee chatting about farm life with the couple. It was a kinder, gentler PC leader saying all the same things he has been saying since he became leader but the tone was completely different. He called Ontarians “super smart” and said voters “understand our plan.” Ford even found time to acknowledge local PC MPP Bob Bailey. Ford’s NDP attack lines were all there. He warned the NDP will “destroy companies” and a NDP government would be “an economic disaster.” But even as he took his quota of five questions from reporters he was more tempered.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath was in southwestern Ontario as well. And she too was in a living room talking to a couple about the high cost of dental care. And Horwath’s tone was more relaxed and less confrontational as well.

Today, she was forced to defend yet another candidate. Again Horwath said she was shocked at the anti-police statements two years ago by her candidate Jill Andrew, in the Toronto riding of St. Paul’s. Horwath tried to put the comments in context of issues in the black community, Andrews is black, but it again ate up a lot of the media attention on the NDP this morning.

Kathleen Wynne, the Liberal leader, is forced daily to admit that third place isn’t where she wants to be. Today, she said, “We know we’re in a very tough position.” Day after day Wynne is talking about the Ontario economy and the economic issues facing the province. She is the candidate for premier with greatest command of the issues. Wynne is warning that both the PCs and the NDP will put the growth in the economy and necessary Ontario infrastructure projects at risk.

The Progressive Conservatives quietly put a document on the PC website called “For the People, a plan for Ontario.” I asked the party if this was the long awaited costed platform. The answer back, “it’s all there. Our plan is there.” I took a look at the education plank in the platform. The PC plan has no new money for education. There is $100 million funding for autism but it is over four years. The PCs promise a moratorium on school closures but the PC spokesperson says there is “no cost” attached to keeping those schools open. The NDP were quick to criticize the document. “Doug Ford’s Conservatives posted an un-costed excuse for a plan online – and with no platform, Ford is still hiding where his cuts will hit.” I will continue to watch for the Liberals and NDP to put a spotlight on the PC plan.

For the past couple of days I’ve stayed away from the polls and watched the campaigns. But today I think it is worth taking a look at a couple that have come out in the last day. Both polls were taken after the TV debate on Sunday evening and both polls show the NDP momentum growing.

Pollara Strategic Insights gives the NDP a five point increase in the past week and now has the NDP at 43 per cent. That’s 11 points ahead of the Progressive Conservatives, who dropped five points to 33 per cent. Pollara finds the Liberals continuing to trail dropping a point to 17 per cent support.

A second poll, out this morning, is from Angus Reid Institute. It also has the Liberal support “collapsing” but this poll has the NDP and PCs in a statistical tie. The NDP are sitting at 39 per cent and the PCs at 37 percent. Both polls agree that the NDP support is growing but neither is ready to give the NDP the most seats. Angus Reid concludes that PC voters are more certain to actually vote and so “the Conservatives retain a narrow advantage on best party to form government.”

Pollara gives the NDP that hefty 11 point lead but the Pollara poll news release says the race “appears significantly tighter when examining vote intentions among those certain and enthusiastic to turnout to vote, as PC voters are more likely to express such sentiments than NDP voters.” And what both polls conclude is supported by the seat projection from LISPOP at Laurier University. That seat projection gives the PCs a bare majority of 63 seats, the NDP 54 and the Liberals 7.

There is a week of campaigning to go and the NDP need still more of that momentum the past couple of weeks to defeat the PCs in what is now clearly a two party race.

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