Chow's lead narrows in Spadina-Fort York: poll
Chris Herhalt, CP24.com
Published Friday, October 2, 2015 11:04AM EDT
Last Updated Friday, October 2, 2015 1:48PM EDT
Olivia Chow's lead in Spadina-Fort York is losing steam while the Liberals and NDP appear to be nearly deadlocked in Toronto Centre, new riding-specific polls suggest.
A poll conducted by Forum Research from Sept. 30 to Oct. 1 in Spadina-Fort York found the former mayoral candidate and MP is ahead of Liberal incumbent Adam Vaughan by five per cent — 42 to 37 — compared with a Forum poll released Aug. 7 which put Chow 29 points ahead of Vaughan.
That Aug. 7 poll reached 345 adults between Aug. 5 and 7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus five per cent, 19 times out of 20.
The latest poll puts the Conservatives with Sabrina Zuniga at 17 per cent in the riding, and the Greens with Sharon Danley at 5 per cent support
Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff says Chow’s slip in the polls is explained by the NDP’s general decline in major urban centres in Canada, which are rapidly changing with the growth of condominium development and gentrification.
“This is a broader challenge for the NDP, to try to remain relevant in a downtown urban setting,” Bozinoff said, alluding to several high profile defeats the provincial NDP suffered in downtown Toronto during the general election last year.
Even when compared to the last election in 2011, the area that comprises the newly-formed Fort York-Spadina riding has become home to thousands of new residents, most of them residing in condominiums.
“There’s some feeling that the condo dwellers are less likely to vote NDP and will eventually give Chow a run for her money,” Bozinoff said.
The most recent poll suggest Chow holds high support among those earning less than $20,000 per year and more than $80,000 per year, while the Liberals the lead among those earning $20,000 to $60,000 per year.
In the neighbouring riding of Toronto Centre, Forum’s poll conducted on Sept. 30 suggest Liberal Bill Morneau is five per cent ahead of NDP candidate Linda McQuaig — 42 per cent to 37 per cent.
Conservative candidate Julian Di Battista has 17 per cent support while Colin Biggin of the Green Party has four per cent support.
An earlier poll conducted released on Aug. 31 put McQuaig one per cent ahead of Morneau - 41 per cent to 40 per cent. That poll reached 488 adults in the riding and had a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, 19 times out of 20.
“I’m wondering if perhaps the NDP could still be in the lead if (McQuaig) wasn’t so far to the left. She needs to be as close to the centre-left as possible but still be seen as an alternative,” Bozinoff said.
The Spadina-Fort York poll conducted Sept. 30 and Oct. 1 reached 461 randomly-selected adults in the riding using interactive robocalls. It has a margin of error of plus or minus five per cent, 19 times out of 20.
The Toronto Centre poll conducted on Sept. 30 reached 597 randomly-selected adults in the riding using interactive robocalls. It has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, 19 times out of 20.