Conservatives leading nationally while NDP losing ground: poll
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper are pictured in this combination image. (The Canadian Press)
Codi Wilson, CP24.com
Published Tuesday, October 6, 2015 6:52AM EDT
Last Updated Tuesday, October 6, 2015 7:00AM EDT
The Conservative Party appears to have pulled ahead of the Liberals by a substantial margin when looking at support nationally, according to a new poll released Tuesday.
The Mainstreet Research/ Postmedia poll, conducted on Sept. 30 and Oct. 1, shows the Conservatives with 37 per cent support across the country compared to 29 per cent support for the Liberal Party. The NDP trailed both parties by a significant margin with 24 per cent support among decided and leaning voters.
“The national stalemate that dominated the vast majority of this election campaign appears to be at an end,” Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research, said in a statement accompanying the poll.
“In recent weeks we have looked at some regions and provinces and those results seemed to point to a significant decrease in support for the NDP and a rise for both the Conservatives and Liberals. When we look across the national picture, we find these regional gains have favoured the Conservatives.”
In British Columbia, the NDP appear to be trailing both the Conservatives and Liberals, despite earlier polls that pointed to a big NDP lead in the province.
“British Columbia will be home to the most close three way races we can expect to see on October 19th,” Maggi added.
The NDP, according to the poll, are also facing some bad news in Ontario, where the party has fallen well behind the Conservatives and Liberals.
Liberal support has stayed strong in Atlantic Canada and Quebec now looks to be a four-way race between the NDP, Bloc, Liberals and Conservatives.
The vote in Quebec is the most volatile of any across Canada and it will be hard to get a clear picture of ballot results until just days before the election. The only thing that is clear, is that the NDP stranglehold on support they enjoyed for most of this campaign has been reduced significantly,” Maggi said.
While the Conservatives will likely hold on to most seats in Alberta, Maggi says some interesting races are shaping up in Calgary and Edmonton.
“The NDP surge that began with a victory for Rachel Notley's NDP here may have come to an end, but there are still pockets of strength in Edmonton. Expect both the Liberals and the NDP to make gains in Alberta,” the pollster added.
The Mainstreet poll, which surveyed a random sample of 5,197 Canadians, is considered accurate plus or minus 1.36 per cent, 19 times out of 20.