Newly-declared mayoral candidate John Tory is likely to be elected should the field stay the same but if NDP MP Olivia Chow enters the race the former radio host could find himself on the outside looking in, according to a new poll from Forum Research.

The random telephone poll of 1,310 Torontonians found that Tory would get 39 per cent of the vote in a four-way race with declared candidates Mayor Rob Ford (33 per cent), Karen Stintz (15 per cent) and David Soknacki (five per cent).

When Chow was added to the list of candidates, the data shifted considerably with Ford and Chow both getting 31 per cent support compared to 27 per cent for Tory, six per cent for Stintz and two per cent for Soknacki.

Tory had the highest approval rating of any of the candidates with 55 per cent of respondents saying they approved of him compared to 51 per cent for Chow, 44 per cent for Ford, 38 per cent for Stintz and 26 per cent for Soknacki.

“While Mayor Ford's approval remains steady at just under half, John Tory's stock has risen recently on all the measures we've tested, including approval, attributes and electability,” Forum Research President Dr. Lorne Bozinoff said in a press release accompanying the poll. “He appears to be the real deal, although things will inevitably shift when, or if, Olivia Chow announces her candidacy.”

Poll suggests many Torontonians have their minds made up on Ford

The poll was conducted on Monday, one day after Tory ended months of speculation and declared his candidacy for mayor.

Though Ford, Chow and Stintz were within a few percentage points of each other with the election still months away, the poll did suggest that Ford may have trouble adding to his base of support with 50 per cent of respondents saying they would never vote for the scandal-plagued mayor compared to 21 per cent of respondents saying the same for Chow, 11 per cent for Stintz, seven per cent for Soknacki and six per cent for Tory.

The poll is considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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