More issues resulting from the migration of Toronto Public Health data to the provincial system has resulted in yet another under-estimation in the Ontario’s daily COVID-19 case count today.
Ontario is reporting 945 new cases of the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, however the province says that is not an accurate reflection of the true total due to issues with Toronto data.
The migration of Toronto Public health to the provincial system over the past couple of weeks has led to repeated data reporting issues. The city previously confirmed that the migration was complete so it is not clear why more issues have surfaced today.
The province logged 112 new infections in Toronto today but officials have not said how many more cases should have been included in today's total.
Over the past week, Toronto has reported an average of 482 new cases each day.
Another 258 cases were confirmed in Peel Region today along with 116 in York Region.
Eighteen virus-related deaths were confirmed today, including nine among residents of long-term care homes in Ontario.
According to the province's daily epidemiological summary, nearly 69,000 tests were processed over the past 24 hours. The provincewide positivity rate now stands at 2.3 per cent, a figure that is provided by the Ministry of Health. That is down from 2.6 per cent one week ago and is the lowest test positivity rate reported in the province since October.
The rolling seven-day average of new infections is now 1,264, down from 1,600 last Wednesday.
Virus-related hospitalizations drop
There appears to have been a steep decline in COVID-19 hospitalizations in Ontario over the past 24 hours. Data released by the province indicates that 883 COVID-19 patients are currently receiving treatment in Ontario hospitals, down from 948 on Wednesday and 1,101 just seven days ago.
There has been a continued discrepancy between the number of virus-related hospitalizations reported by the province and local public health units (PHUs).
Data provided by PHUs today puts the number of COVID-19 patients in Ontario hospitals at 1,057, an inconsistency provincial health officials have chalked up to different data reporting methods and "different ways of counting patients in hospitals."
The province also says that there are now 299 COVID-19 patients in intensive care, the first time that number has dipped below 300 since late December.
It should be noted that Critical Care Services Ontario said there were 340 people in intensive care as of 8 p.m. on Wednesday night, according to two doctors sharing the data on social media.
There are now 12,853 known active cases in the province, down from more than 16,000 one week ago
The decline in case numbers comes as the province moves ahead with its plan to transition all regions back into its colour-coded reopening framework.
Three regions of the province, all in eastern Ontario, have already been moved to the "green" zone of the Ford government’s reopening framework, allowing many businesses, including restaurants and gyms, to open their doors to customers once again after a six-week provincewide lockdown implemented on Boxing Day.
Most regions of the province will see some easing of restrictions come Feb. 16, while Toronto, Peel Region, and York Region will have to wait until at least Feb. 22.
But some medical officers of health and public health experts have expressed concern over reopening the economy too quickly, warning that a third wave is possible if we do not take a cautious approach.
Dr. Lawrence Loh, the medical officer of health for Peel Region, said Wednesday that lifting restrictions days after reopening schools in Ontario’s three COVID-19 hot spots does not provide officials with sufficient time to assess the impact in-person learning will have on transmission of the virus.
“This is a critical moment for our community in fighting COVID-19. Next week, students will return to in-person learning... I must be clear. Any further reopening that might be contemplated must be gradual to allow for appropriate assessment of trends, and to prevent case counts, hospitalizations and deaths from climbing again," he said at a news conference on Wednesday.
"The province has proposed that Peel could return to a revised reopening framework as early as Feb 22 and in entering that framework we could see the loosening of restrictions. That's coming six days after school reopening, which is far too early to fully assess the impacts that school reopening will have on our community transmission patterns. That unfortunately is not gradual."
Third wave possible this spring
Infectious diseases specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch, who is also a member of the province's COVID-19 vaccine task force, said a third wave is a possibility this spring.
"The things pointing in that direction are variants of concern that are more transmissible and can really cause larger outbreaks, and also if the reopening strategies are conducted in a manner where we just facilitated or allow transmission in the community settings to go unchecked, we will see a third wave," he told CP24 on Thursday morning.
"I think the other key point here is it is preventable. And in fact, even in the provincial reopening plan, they talk about an emergency brake and I really hope they use that emergency brake wisely. If you start to see cases plateau or rise, I really hope they pull that emergency brake to quell that as quickly as possible."
The province says there are at least 236 confirmed cases in Ontario of the B.1.1.7 variant, which was first detected in the United Kingdom, and three confirmed cases of B.1.351, a COVID-19 variant first found in South Africa. Toronto Public Health said Sunday that at least one case of the P.1 variant, also known as the Brazilian variant of concern, has been confirmed in Toronto but that case has not yet been included in provincial totals.
The numbers used in this story are found in the Ontario Ministry of Health's COVID-19 Daily Epidemiologic Summary. The number of cases for any city or region may differ slightly from what is reported by the province, because local units report figures at different times.
