Ontario is reporting a combined 375 new cases of COVID-19 over the last two days, marking the continuation of a steady upward trend that has now resulted in a return to levels of infection last seen in July.

The Ministry of Health says that there were 190 new cases reported on the holiday Monday and 185 new cases reported today. Both of those numbers represent the highest daily counts since July 24.

The seven-day rolling average of new cases is now 159, up from 116 at this point last week and 85 at one point in August.

During a briefing on Tuesday afternoon, Ontario’s Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe said that the recent rise in cases is “at least partly attributable” to a number of major outbreaks, including a cluster at a church in Toronto that has resulted in at least 15 cases and another cluster at a wedding in York Region that has resulted in at least 23 cases.

She said that there have also been smaller outbreaks at workplaces across the province.

“Continuous efforts from the community to practice preventative public health measures and keep the number of COVID-19 cases low is increasingly and incredibly important,” she warned. "None of us wants to return to the restrictive measures that were imposed in the spring."

More than half of new cases are in Toronto, Peel

Of the new cases reported today, more than half of them are in either Toronto (108 cases) or Peel Region (99 cases) while the rest of the GTA accounted for an additional 52 cases. Ottawa was the only other public health unit that reported more than 10 combined cases over the last two days combined (52 cases).

Meanwhile, 18 of Ontario’s public health units reported no new cases at all over the last 48 hours.

Ontario has now reported more than 100 cases for 13 days in a row after going an entire week without hitting that threshold earlier in August.

The last time that the number of cases were on the ascent and the seven-day rolling average was the high was March 30.

About three weeks later the province reached the peak of the first wave when it reported 640 new cases in a 24-hour span (April 24).

“Am I a little frustrated? Yeah I am because it is pretty simple,” Premier Doug Ford said on Tuesday, following an announcement that his government would press pause on considering the loosening of any further public health restrictions. “Just follow the guidelines. Don’t have any big parties and don’t have these big family gatherings. It is simple. And I encourage the neighbours if you hear the big parties call the police and I am asking the police go in there and lay the charges. It is very simple. We have to start putting the hammer down on people that don’t want to follow protocols and guidelines because it is going to affect every single one of us.”

Positive percentage ticking up

The spike in cases comes as students in some school boards head back to classes for the first time since March today, prompting concerns about increased transmission.

If there is good news to be found it is that the province continues to conduct more tests on a per capita basis than any other jurisdiction in Canada, processing nearly 45,000 over the last two days.

While the positive percentage is ticking up and now stands at 0.83, it remains far off the highs seen in early April when it hit 17 per cent at one point.

Hospitalization numbers also remain relatively stable.

On Tuesday there were 54 COVID-19 patients receiving treatment in Ontario hospitals, including 17 in intensive care units.

The ministry, however, did warn that about 30 hospitals failed to upload patient information to the provincial database over the long weekend and that the number could increase as a result.

“The crystal ball is clearly foggy and I think that anyone that speaks with confidence on this, you have to be a little bit weary of that because a lot of what happens over the next few months will be completely dependent on how we behave as individuals,” infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch told CP24 earlier on Tuesday morning. “It depends on how good our institutions are. Schools, businesses, any organizations that have people in an indoor venue, can they create a safe environment for their patrons and their employees? It also will depend on how are our government and public health agencies work. Are they providing rapid turnaround time on tests? Are they doing appropriate and rapid contact tracing? Are they providing appropriate supports and public health messaging to targeted communities? If we are all doing our part we can very likely avoid another lockdown. If there are breaks in this chain along the way we might see the re-imposition of these public health restrictions that we were living through before.”

Other highlights from the data:

  • Younger people continue to make up the highest proportion of new cases with the 20 to 39 age group accounting for more than half of new infections over the last 48 hours (173 cases).
  • There were two new outbreaks reported at long-term care homes over the last 48 hours. There are now 22 active outbreaks in those settings.
  • There were no new deaths reported over the last 48 hours. The death toll remains at 2,813.
  • The number of active cases across Ontario increased by 137 over the last 48 hours. It now stands at 1,527 after dipping below 1,000 last month.
  • The total number of lab-confirmed cases since the beginning of the pandemic is 43,536. Of those cases 11.3 per cent have resulted in hospitalization.