TTC staff are recommending that the Scarborough RT be shut down and replaced with buses by 2023, a full seven years ahead of the expected completion date for the Line 2 subway extension.

Staff were considering three different options on what to do with the increasingly derelict rapid transit line, including a partial overhaul that would have allowed it to remain in service until 2030, albeit with fewer trains and the associated need for supplementary bus service.

But in a report that will go before the TTC board next week, staff rule out another overhaul of the SRT due to the costly price tag of $522.4 million and the “high risk of not achieving the required service reliability.”

Instead, staff say that the TTC should shut down the line in 2023.

They are proposing two options for further study on how to provide supplemental service while the subway extension is completed.

Both would see eight bus routes that currently terminate at Scarborough Centre Station used to provide express service to Kennedy Station. In some instances, the routes would also have a stop at Lawrence Avenue East.

The cheaper option would cost about $357 million and would see the TTC use buses from its existing fleet for the first three years and then purchase about 20 news buses a year to maintain the enhanced service between 2027 and 2029.

The other option would cost $374 million but would allow the TTC to immediately purchase 60 new buses to help provide the enhanced service.

“Both options are a low risk option from a cost, schedule, and deliverability perspective,” the staff report notes.

The city had initially intended to keep the Scarborough RT in service until 2026 when the then one-stop subway extension backed by Mayor John Tory was initially supposed to be completed by.

But the project later got taken over by the province and revised to include three stops, pushing the completion date back until 2030.

The report says that commute times will increase as a result of the switch to bus service with the trip from Scarborough Centre Station to Kennedy Station taking 15 to 18 minutes rather than 10.

It also warns that bus service will be “more susceptible to delays compared to trains, which could affect the consistent delivery of service on the corridor and cause uneven crowding on buses

But it says that any increase in commute times will be partially offset for the 75 per cent of riders who currently transfer from buses to the RT.

The report also makes clear that keeping the RT in service until 2030 just isn’t an option.

It says that the trains used on the line reached the end of their life cycle a decade ago and that the “obsolescence of key parts” is becoming an increasing issue.

The vehicles are also breaking down more frequently with the staff report suggesting that there will be approximately four major delays per week by 2026 if it is kept in service.

“As the overall vehicle reliability continues to degrade with equipment failures, it would result in more frequent and unscheduled service interruptions, negatively impacting service level. Consequently, sufficient trains may not be available to provide the required service, and passenger crowding would get progressively worse over time to a point where it may not meet the minimum service level,” the report warns.

Scarborough RT had carried 35,000 riders

The Scarborough RT has been running since 1985 and had carried 35,000 customers a day before its ridership took a hit as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It was initially supposed to be replaced by a light rail transit network that would have been completed last year but that project was cancelled under the leadership of former Mayor Rob Ford in 2010.

Speaking with CP24 on Thursday afternoon, Scarborough-Guildwood Coun. Paul Ainslie said that he would have preferred it if the city went ahead with what was a fully-funded light rail transit line back then.

Instead, he said that many people in Scarborough were “sold a bill of goods by politicians that held up this shiny subway ball and said everybody deserves the subway.”

“Well, I agree everybody does deserve a subway. We also need the best reliable rapid transit that you can get in the 21st century and riding buses on a route that really has the capacity for an LRT line is not 21st century modern transportation,” he said.

These are the bus routes that staff say will be used to replace the service provided by the Scarborough RT:

  • 38 Highland Creek
  • 129 McCowan North
  • 131 Nugget
  • 133 Neilson
  • 134C Progress
  • 939A/B Finch Express
  • 954 Lawrence East Express
  • 985A Sheppard East Express