The day after the last CP24 televised debate for Toronto mayor, the three candidates face a grueling day of three debates. The first is at 11:30 a.m. at the downtown YMCA. From there, they move on to St Michaels on Bathurst for a live radio debate at 5 p.m. hosted by John Tory and then another evening debate at 8:30 p.m.
For a few minutes last night viewers got a taste of what a two man debate between the front runners, Rob Ford and George Smitherman, would have been like. With Joe Pantalone shut out for minutes at a time, Ford and Smitherman played their hands. Both had cards up their sleeves. Ford went back to Smitherman's role in the eHealth scandal and asked if untendered contracts went to a former Smitherman aide. Smitherman then turned on Ford alleging Ford was the deciding vote at city council in a sole source 15-year contract.
Neither card turned into an ace as both candidates parried the attacks. Smitherman quoted Tuesday's Marcus Gee newspaper column that concluded Ford was using "crude slurs" in his eHealth attacks. Ford waited for a commercial break and then came back and pointed out that his vote was to ask for a report on that 15 year contract.
Both spent much of the debate trying to put doubts in the minds of voters about whether their opponent could be trusted. It was probably the most used word in the debate. Here, Pantalone wasn't about to be left out and he too emphasized the importance of trust. Each candidate tried to impress voters that he is the only one that will deliver his platform – "trust me!"
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A poll from Ipsos-Reid Tuesday confirmed that this is one of the closest most exciting elections Toronto has seen in many years. Ford leads Smitherman 33 per cent to 31 per cent and Pantalone is at 13 per cent. The three polls released this week all have Ford slightly ahead, but all have the contest so tight that it is within the margin of error.
Talk is now going to turn to two things.
First, what will Pantalone's supporters do? Will they stick with his positive vision for Toronto and cast their vote for him or will they decide that the race is too close and vote for their second choice? Smitherman will continue to court Pantalone voters. Last night, he kept calling himself a "centrist" and he will keep doing that as he tried to make himself as likeable as possible to the more left wing Pantalone voter.
Second, what will the turnout be and getting out the vote. The Ipsos-Reid poll reports that 54 per cent say they are certain to vote. That would be a 15 per cent increase in turnout over 2006. The organizational strength of the campaigns will be critical to getting voters to the polls. Each campaign will be using its supporters to cajole, drive and walk candidates to polling stations.
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At those debates today, all three candidates will stick to their message. The Ford camp wants to reinforce its "stop the gravy train" message as often as possible and paint Smitherman as the candidate who can't make up his mind about what is most important for the city. Smitherman, in turn, will move to the centre, call himself the "centrist" candidate and say again and again that "a vote for Joe is a vote for Ford." Pantalone, now effectively out of the race, can take the high road and talk about his vision for a great city.
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Finally, a quick note about the race for council in Beaches-East York (ward 32). Mary-Margaret McMahon has more momentum in her campaign to knock off councillor Sandra Bussin. This morning another candidate, Neil Sinclair, has ended his campaign and thrown his support behind McMahon. Bussin, who won by a large margin in 2006, will need to get her vote out on election day to stave off McMahon. It is one of a number of possible upsets that could change the face of Toronto's city council and make it less left wing.
