A new poll on Toronto's mayoralty candidates shows front-runners Rob Ford and George Smitherman in a statistical dead heat with many undecided voters saying they won't make a choice until election day.
The poll also reveals that the majority of Pantalone supporters name Smitherman as their second choice for mayor.
The Nanos poll, commissioned by CP24, CTV and the Globe and Mail, shows that of those people who are "very likely" to vote, Ford leads with 43.9 per cent.
Smitherman is right behind with 40.5 per cent of the vote while support for Joe Pantalone has remained mainly steady at 15 per cent.
Ford's base of support is strongest in Etobicoke where he has been councillor for the last 10 years. Smitherman, who once served the city as a Liberal MPP, has the most support in old Toronto.
About 18.5 per cent of "very likely" voters say they are undecided.
The findings have a margin of error of 3.1 per cent. The research is based on a random telephone sample of 1,000 Torontonians who identified themselves as "very likely" voters.
The poll, which will be released in three parts starting Sunday night, is the most comprehensive survey taken during the election campaign.
Since CP24 released its last election poll on Sept. 19, candidates Sarah Thomson and Rocco Rossi have dropped out of the race. The majority of their support has gone to Smitherman.
The September poll showed Smitherman had 21.3 per cent support while Ford had 45.8 per cent of the vote.
"With Ford support relatively unchanged in the past 30 days, the change in the structure of the race has worked to the primary benefit of Smitherman," the survey notes.
Voter loyalty
The poll asked voters how firm their support is for their chosen candidate.
Ford supporters were the most loyal at 70.1 per cent.
Smitherman has firm support from 64.8 per cent of his supporters while Pantalone can count on 47.5 per cent of his supporters to stick to their decision.
With less than half of Pantalone's supporters saying they are unwavering in their decision, the difference on Election Day might come from those who choose to change their mind at the last minute.
Pantalone supporters were asked to pick their second choice for mayor. More than half (53.4 per cent) of his supporters chose Smitherman whereas only 15.3 per cent chose Ford.
The poll also notes that the number of undecided voters has dropped from September when 25 per cent of people surveyed said they had not yet made up their minds on who they would choose as Toronto's next mayor.
Of the 18.5 of voters who said they were undecided, 41.6 per cent said they would make their final decision on October 25, Election Day. About 27 per cent said they would decide this week.
The vote will be about the city's desire for change versus the desire for experience.
More than 43 per cent of Ford supporters say they are driven by the desire to send a message of change while only 10 per cent of Smitherman supporters said the same.
In contrast, 47.6 per cent of Smitherman supporters said they are more likely to be driven by the view that he is the most qualified candidate.
The three leading candidates for mayor are coming to CP24 to face off the final official televised debate. Catch "Your Vote: The Race for Mayor" live on CP24 on Tuesday, Oct. 19.
