A potentially historic winter storm currently walloping Buffalo will mostly miss the GTA but some communities elsewhere in southern Ontario could still see “significant” snowfall totals, according to a meteorologist with Environment Canada.

The lake-effect storm is expected to dump up to four feet of snow on Buffalo by Sunday and the National Weather Service has warned that it has the potential to “paralyze the hardest-hit communities” in and around Western New York.

But Environment Canada Meteorologist Geoff Coulson tells CP24 that southwest winds throughout the weekend should mean that the GTA will largely be protected from the brunt of the storm.

Lake-effect snow develops when cold air flows across the warmer waters of the Great Lakes. It can result in as much as five to eight centimetres of snow per hour.

“We're going to miss out on the majority of this event but it's important to know that if you're planning travel today and through the weekend down through the Niagara Peninsula, or northwards up to the Bruce Peninsula or the Parry Sound area, those conditions are going to be quite significantly worse than what we're experiencing around Toronto,” Coulson said. “So what we're seeing here, it’s really not much of anything in Toronto itself, but in other parts of southern Ontario and Western New York this is going to be quite a significant snowfall event.”

Environment Canada has already issued a snow squall watch for the Niagara Region, warning of snowfall amounts of 30 to 60 centimetres and “near zero” visibility in some areas.

The weather agency has also issued a handful of other watches and warnings for other parts of southern Ontario, including Grey-Bruce County where it says 50 to 80 centimetres of snow could fall between now and Sunday, and Barrie where up to 25 centimetres of snow could fall.

Speaking with CP24 later on Friday, Environment Canada Senior Climatologist David Phillips said that lake-effect snow tends to be very localized and that’s why this storm isn’t expected to hit southern Ontario in the same way that it is hitting western New York.

But he said that people should still prepare for potentially adverse conditions when travelling through the region, especially in places like Fort Erie which straddle the Canada-U.S. border.

“It's like taking a snow hose that you see on the ski hills and it's just like aiming it right at Buffalo,” he said of the storm. “It is white knuckling time. It is just blowing and drifting snow everywhere. Words like dangerous and crippling these are not media words. These are words coming from weather services, so it tells you that this is really a life threatening kind of situation.”

The following areas are currently under snow squall watches or warnings: 

  • Barrie - Orillia - Midland
  • Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
  • Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet
  • Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
  • Grey - Bruce
  • Huron - Perth
  • Kingston - Prince Edward
  • Niagara
  • Parry Sound - Muskoka
  • Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk