Ontario is reporting more than 1,300 new cases of COVID-19 over the last 48 hours and its rolling-seven day average is now down nearly seven per cent from this time last week, as the fourth wave of the pandemic appears to recede.
The Ministry of Health confirmed the latest cases on Friday morning after not releasing any data on Thursday due to National Truth and Reconciliation Day.
The two-day average of 657 represents a slight increase from earlier this week when the numbers dipped below 500 on back to back days but is still a reduction from the average reported over the same two-day period last week (702).
Ontario’s rolling seven-day average also continues to decline and now stands at 597. It was 655 last Friday and 724 the Friday prior.
The latest data comes on the heels of Ontario’s Science Advisory Table releasing new modelling which suggested that the Delta-driven fourth wave of the pandemic was “flattening” but warned that we are “walking along a narrow ledge” with cases rising in 19 of Ontario’s 34 public health units, as well as among youth between the ages of five and 11.
Meanwhile, Toronto City Council approved Friday to extend the city’s mandatory mask bylaw until at least January amid concerns about an increase in cases this winter. The extension was recommended by Medical Officer of Health Dr. Eileen de Villa.
“Masks work, masks work to help us in the fight against COVID-19 and to protect the tremendous progress we have made so far,” Mayor John Tory told reporters earlier on Friday. “They reduce the transmission of COVID-19 indoors where distance sometimes can’t be maintained and I think the broad majority of the public are supportive of these measures, find them not to be too intrusive and our supportive of their continuation as long as public health advice suggests that should be the case.”
Nearly 75,000 individual tests processed
Of the latest cases, 668 were confirmed over the last 24 hours and 647 were confirmed over the previous 24-hour period.
The province’s labs turned around nearly 75,000 tests over the two-day period as the positivity rate continued to decline. It has averaged out to 1.88 per cent over the last seven days, compared to 2.2 as of last Friday.
It also appears as though the burden on hospitals could be easing, even as some other provinces deal with record high volumes and begin limiting care in a frenzied effort to free up resources. .
The Ministry of Health says that there were 163 people in intensive care units with COVID-19 as of Thursday night, as well as another 115 people in other hospital units. The number of COVID patients in the ICU peaked at 194 back on Sept. 17.
Public health officials have previously said that once the number of COVID patients in intensive care crosses 250 there is a risk of some scheduled procedures having to be cancelled in hard-hit hospitals.
“While we're seeing comparatively modest case counts we are again on the verge of a risky and uncertain period in the pandemic,” de Villa warned earlier this week, as she discussed the situation in Toronto. “If transmission rates stay the same Toronto Public Health is modeling daily case counts at around 130 cases per day in early December but if we were to see a 20 per cent increase in transmission rates we model 600 cases per day by early December.”
Of the latest cases, 204 were in Toronto, 150 were in Peel Region and 95 were in York Region. Elsewhere in the GTHA, Hamilton reported 88 cases, Durham reported 83 cases and Halton reported 34 cases. All of the numbers are over a two-day period.
The numbers used in this story are found in the Ontario Ministry of Health's COVID-19 Daily Epidemiologic Summary. The number of cases for any city or region may differ slightly from what is reported by the province, because local units report figures at different times.
