A new poll has found the Progressive Conservatives hold an eight per cent lead over the Liberals ahead of a byelection in Whitby-Oshawa, with more than a quarter of respondents still undecided.
The poll of 597 voters conducted on Monday found 37 per cent support the Progressive Conservatives, 29 per cent are behind the Liberals, six per cent support the NDP and one per cent support the Greens.
Mainstreet Research executive vice-president David Valentin says the numbers suggest the provincial Liberals could be enjoying a “bounce” courtesy of their federal counterparts led by Justin Trudeau, which has allowed them to perform better than otherwise expected.
“The fact is that you have a premier who’s been there for a while now . . . and you have a lot of different conversations going on right now, whether it’s about pensions, hydro price, or even potential strikes, some that have loomed over that specific part of Durham.”
Public high school teachers in the area were off the job from Apr. 20 to May 26, 2015.
The Mainstreet Research poll found 27 per cent of respondents are still undecided, however.
“We’re seeing similar undecided scores in provincial elections out west that we’re polling right now,” Valentin told CP24. “I think a lot of it is just winter fatigue, it’s a new year, people are still getting back from vacation.”
He said that in the Sudbury byelection in February 2015, early polls also indicated many people had not made up their minds, and some weren’t even aware a byelection was to take place.
The undecided vote could vastly alter the result of the byelection, Valentin said.
When asked which party they were leaning towards, 15 per cent of undecided voters said Liberal, 12 per cent said PC, 6 per cent said Green and three per cent said NDP. Sixty-four per cent said they were not leaning towards any particular party.
The Progressive Conservatives nominated regional councilor Lorne Coe, the Liberals have nominated another regional councillor, Elizabeth Roy, while the NDP have nominated labour and human rights lawyer Niki Lundquist and the Greens have nominated college instructor and women’s advocate Stacey Leadbetter.
While the riding was held by eight years by Christine Elliott, who served as deputy leader of the Progressive Conservatives for much of her tenure and challenged for the leadership of the party twice, Elliott will not be allowed to campaign on behalf of Tory candidate Coe.
That’s because Elliott accepted a role as a civil servant, announcing in Dec. 2015 she would become Ontario’s first patient ombudsman.
Voters head to the polls on Feb. 11, and Valentin said that given the six month timeline, from Aug. 28 to Feb. 28, that Wynne had to call the byelection, which contained a long federal election campaign and almost all of the winter season, there was no real ideal time to call this vote.
“No matter when you call a byelection, the local community is probably going to find it inconvenient.”
The poll was conducted using interactive voice response automated calling and has a margin of error of +/- four per cent, 19 times out of 20.
