The tell-tale signs were everywhere today. The headlines in the Toronto papers outlined the stakes. The Toronto Star headlined, “Conservative minority would meet quick end.” The Globe and Mail declared “Harper on defence as rivals seek inroads.” The election campaign is in its last days and most betting politicos think a week from now Canada will be wrestling with the make-up of a minority government. The three leaders are in for a punishing last six days as they try to find every advantage they can to be the party with the most seats when the votes are counted.
The consensus is the Liberals are the party with the momentum. That’s the good news for the Liberals. The bad news is the party started the campaign with 36 seats. Even with that momentum getting to a majority of 170 is a going to require a final week where Justin Trudeau turns a lot of heads. This morning both Conservative Stephen Harper and the NDP’s Tom Mulcair spent time trying to put the breaks on Trudeau’s surge.
Stephen Harper was in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. In 2011 that riding put the stamp on the Conservatives big majority win when Bernard Trottier beat then Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff. Today the riding needed a visit from the Conservative leader to try to hold it next Monday. Harper’s pitch was more focused than ever before. Harper, in jeans and rolled up shirt sleeves, only talked about the middle class tax stakes in the election. Harper used a bit of theatre to have a small business man count out what his small business would lose under Trudeau. With cash register sound effects it added up to $5,500. That cash register effect was used yesterday as well.
Harper’s pitch today made no mention of national security, no mention of the Trans Pacific Partnership, indeed it was all about the voter’s pocket book. There was nothing new, just a sharpened case for what it will cost to vote Liberal. That’s right -- Liberal. That was the other thing to note this morning. Harper didn’t so much as mention either Tom Mulcair or the NDP.
Many of the ridings the Conservatives won in 2011 are now trending Liberal. Last week Trudeau was in London, Ontario trying to take back a couple of the ridings there. This afternoon Stephen Harper headed to London determined to protect those ridings too. Tomorrow evening he’ll be in Brampton doing the same thing there.
Tom Mulcair started his day in the Conservative-held riding of Oshawa this morning. This should be a safe seat for the Conservatives. Colin Carrie has held the seat since 2004. His winning margins have increased with each election. Mulcair’s message is that he is out to defeat Conservative Stephen Harper. Oshawa, home to General Motors, was a good place to talk about the NDP`s position to fight the TPP and the jobs it will cost the auto sector. Mulcair said both the Conservatives and Liberals support the big trade deal. This evening Mulcair went out to Brampton another part of the GTA where the Conservatives grabbed seats four years ago that might be in play now.
Mulcair said his focus is on defeating Harper. He went on to say “Justin Trudeau has been fighting me more than Stephen Harper but my opponent is Stephen Harper.” One of this week’s final NDP pitches is that for the first time in Canadian history there is a three-way race in a federal election. Mulcair said Canadians can make a historic choice, reject the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party and “make their own positive choice” by voting NDP. Mulcair keeps reminding voters the NDP need only 35 more seats to defeat Harper.
Justin Trudeau needs to win seats, lots of seats, so this week the Liberals will target NDP ridings and Conservative ridings. Trudeau had three Toronto NDP ridings in his sights today. This morning found him in Beaches-East York a traditional Liberal riding that got swept up in the Jack Layton wave in 2011. The riding is next door to the NDP stronghold in the city, Toronto Danforth, the riding Layton held. From there he made stops in Parkdale-High Park held by the NDPs Peggy Nash and in Davenport. The Liberals owned this riding until Andrew Cash won it in 2011 for the NDP. Trudeau said today he wants to defeat Harper but his target for winnable seats took him into the heart of NDP held Toronto. While Harper lambasted Trudeau for raising taxes and costing a small business $5,500, Trudeau promised that a family of four will have $5,100 more in their pockets. Trudeau called the Liberal platform “the most progressive platform in the history of Canada.” The Liberal attempt to take ownership of “progressive” was a direct appeal to NDP voters everywhere. Trudeau isn’t done with targeting NDP ridings. He’ll start his day tomorrow in NDP held Hamilton.
Reporters today asked all the leaders about the impact a minority government would have on Canadians. If two parties can’t work together would that mean another election is around the corner? A full page ad in today’s Globe and Mail promoted the idea of ‘strategic voting` in close ridings across the country. The goal was clearly stated, “70% of Canadians do not want to be governed by the Conservative Party of Canada.” The ad listed the ridings where the New Democrats are leading and a second list where the Liberal party leads. The effectiveness of strategic voting is open for debate but today’s ad, and other strategic voting campaigns across the country, are more visible in this campaign.
In an interview on CP24 Harper dismissed the rationale of strategic voting. He told Stephen LeDrew, “Nobody votes strategically, you know that Stephen. They vote for what is best for them.” Maybe. But in that Oshawa riding Mulcair visited today the local NDP candidate, Mary Fowler, is paying for a “vote strategically” radio ad. She tells voters that it is a tight race in Oshawa and only the NDP can beat the Conservatives.
For the rest of the campaign all three leaders will sell their promises for what is best for the Canadian voter. The validity of strategic voting in 2015 will be something academics will be able to pour over in the months and years after the election as they compare polling station results in the 70 ridings the ad lists.
