A poll taken during Rob Ford’s growing drug and alcohol scandal suggests the embattled mayor would lose his bid for re-election if he faces a handful of declared or potential candidates next year.
In the latest sign of dwindling support for the mayor, the Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CP24, CTV News and Newstalk 1010 found the mayor would be defeated by Coun. Karen Stintz, NDP MP Olivia Chow and former Ontario Progressive Conservative leader John Tory in four potential scenarios that voters could face when they head to the polls in October.
Six in ten (62%) respondents "agree" (50 per cent strongly, 13 per cent somewhat) that there is no way they would consider voting for Ford under any circumstance, the poll says.
The survey released Thursday was taken before new allegations of drug and alcohol use emerged and before Ford admitted to city council that he has purchased illicit drugs within the last two years.
The poll paints a bleak portrait for a scandal-plagued mayor who has already admitted to smoking crack cocaine and being in a "drunken stupor" on multiple occasions, is being scrutinized for associating with alleged gang members or drug dealers, and is being investigated by police for a video that allegedly shows him smoking from a glass pipe.
Stintz beats Ford in three-way race
The first scenario puts Ford against one-time council ally Stintz, the chair of the TTC, and former councillor David Soknacki in a three-way race. Both Stintz and Soknacki have announced their intention to challenge Ford.
The poll suggests Stintz would come out on top with 52 per cent of the vote, while Ford would finish second (33 per cent) and Soknacki third (14 per cent).
Tory, Stintz finish ahead of Ford
In the second scenario, Ford would finish behind Tory and Stintz in a four-way mayoral race including Soknacki.
The order of finish would be Tory (41 per cent), Stintz (30 per cent), Ford (22 per cent) and Soknacki (seven per cent).
Chow would defeat Ford
Chow would cruise to victory if she was added to the mix in a four-way race. The poll suggests she would pick up 44 per cent of the vote, easily beating Ford (28 per cent), Stintz (22 per cent) and Soknacki (seven per cent).
Chow, Tory would create closer race
According to Ipsos Reid, a five-way race including Ford, Stintz, Tory and Chow would be the tightest of the four scenarios.
In that scenario, Chow (36 per cent) would edge Tory (28 per cent), while Ford (20 per cent), Stintz (13 per cent) and Soknacki (three per cent) would finish third, fourth and fifth, respectively, the poll says.
Chow and Tory have indicated to CP24 that they are considering a run for mayor in 2014. Both would provide stiff competition for Ford.
“Mayor Rob Ford does considerably better when he is not splitting the right-wing vote with John Tory. In scenarios where John Tory is included, Rob Ford fares much worse,” Ipsos Reid says. “However, at this stage in the game, Rob Ford is not terribly competitive in any scenario.”
In another highlight from the survey, more than half of respondents (53 per cent) said they “disagree” (34 per cent strongly, 19 per cent somewhat) with the statement “Mayor Ford is doing things at city hall that I want him to keep doing.”
Ipsos Reid conducted the poll between Friday and Tuesday, surveying 665 Torontonians via an online panel. The poll is accurate to within 4.3 percentage points.
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