A new Forum Research poll suggests Mayor Rob Ford’s approval rating has jumped sharply after the ice storm and he would defeat two high-profile Torontonians if both challenge him in October’s municipal election.

Forum Research polled 1,105 Torontonians and 47 per cent of them said they approve of the job Ford is doing, up five percentage points since the last survey was conducted in early December.

Deputy Mayor Norm Kelly, who assumed key powers that city council stripped from Ford amid a crack cocaine scandal, has an approval rating of 60 per cent, down from 65 per cent a month ago.

The poll released Wednesday is the first one to be conducted after an ice storm swept through the region last month and plunged hundreds of thousands of hydro customers into darkness.

It appears Ford may have benefited by staying in the public eye in the days after the storm.

Forum Research said four in 10 respondents (41 per cent) said they will vote for Ford when Toronto elects a new council in October, up from 33 per cent in December.

The mayor was criticized by some council members for not declaring a state of emergency but 51 per cent of people who were surveyed said they back his decision.

Thirty-seven per cent think Ford should have declared an emergency.

Ford is running for a second mayoral term and so far his main competitor is former councillor David Soknacki, although TTC chair Karen Stintz says she plans to register her campaign in February and rumours are swirling around NDP MP Olivia Chow and former Ontario Progressive Conservative leader John Tory.

In any situation involving all or some of those challengers, Ford would come out on top, the Forum Research poll suggests.

Here are the scenarios in order of finish:

  • Ford (49 per cent), Stintz (29 per cent), Soknacki (14 per cent)
  • Ford (39 per cent), Chow (35 per cent), Stintz (12 per cent), Soknacki (eight per cent)
  • Ford (35 per cent), Chow (30 per cent), Tory (22 per cent), Stintz (five per cent), Soknacki (three per cent)
  • Ford (35 per cent), Tory (29 per cent), Stintz (15 per cent), Soknacki (nine per cent)

However, Ford wasn’t the preferred choice for who would make the best mayor. Forum Research said Tory was preferred by 35 per cent of respondents, while Chow had the support of 33 per cent of those who were surveyed.

Tory is preferred among older men in upper income and education brackets in North York and

Scarborough, and Chow is preferred by younger people in lower income brackets in the downtown, the poll found.

Forum Research said the results are based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,105 randomly-selected Torontonians who are 18 or older. The poll was conducted Monday and the results are considered accurate to within three per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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