A CTV/CP24 poll by IPSOS released today suggests it’s been a good first week for the Progressive Conservatives and Tim Hudak.
The poll shows the Tories maintaining their lead across the province with 37 per cent of decided voters. The Liberals are six points behind at 31 per cent and the NDP are right behind the Liberals with 28 per cent. At this early stage in the campaign it’s not too surprising that 16 per cent of voters are undecided.
And the news stays positive for the Tories when it comes to the leaders’ popularity. Hudak is ahead of both Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath. When asked who would make the best premier 34 per cent chose Hudak - that’s a two point increase since April. Wynne trails Hudak by five points at 29 per cent and Horwath is right behind her at 28 per cent. Green Party Leader, Mike Schreiner, trails with the support of 9 per cent of Ontarians. The online poll of 821 Ontarians was conducted May 6-8 and has a margin of error or a credibility interval of +/- 4 per cent.
John Wright, senior vice president at IPSOS, says the poll shows Tory supporters are more likely to vote. Wright also points out “there is a growing desire for change in Ontario.” That change dynamic increased over the last month.
“Nearly three quarters (72 per cent, up four points) of Ontarians believe it is ‘time for another party to take over,’ while just 28 per cent think that ‘the Wynne government has done a good job and deserves re-election,’ down four points,” Wright said.
It looks like the first week strategy has been working for the Progressive Conservatives. Hudak has been up early, determined to set the agenda for the day. Hudak spent most of the week hammering his “million job” plan. The other parties took a couple of days to respond but by Thursday they were starting to focus on jobs too. Friday, the Liberals set Wynne’s agenda and made it all about jobs. “Wynne to talk about Jobs” highlighted her schedule for the day featuring three different workplace media events. The NDP followed suit sending Andrea Horwath to a plant in Windsor with the three area NDP candidates. Horwath stuck to her platform promising to offer employers a tax credit for creating new jobs in the province. The NDP hopes to gain Windsor West which would give them all three seats in the city.
The Tories countered all that by moving on. Instead of another Hudak hard hat photo-op the PCs changed the channel and promised to balance the budget. Hudak went to Barrie announcing his “bold” plan to balance the books by 2016 - a full year ahead of the Liberal commitment. He also promised to cut 100,000 civil service jobs in the province. That forced Wynne to pivot and respond, calling the Hudak plan “disastrous for the province.” Wynne pushed the fear button warning of cuts to education and health care. Hudak’s announcement today said the health budget would be protected, but Wynne said right now Ontario needs “a steady hand on the tiller.”
Based on the CP24/CTV poll released today Wynne has four weeks to convince those voters wanting change to reconsider and stick with the party that’s been in power for more than a decade.
