The U.S. and Canada have intensified talks for an economic and security deal in recent weeks — with a framework for such an arrangement trading hands between the two parties — sources tell CTV News.
Sources who spoke to CTV News on the condition of anonymity all universally cautioned the finalizing of such a deal requires sign-off directly from U.S. President Donald Trump, and there are no explicit assurances that will happen on a certain timeline.
A senior government source, speaking on background, also confirmed that documents are going back and forth between Canadian and American sides of the negotiating table, but would not confirm the documents’ contents. The source described it as “part of a normal negotiation,” adding the government “will not negotiate in public.”
Sources say there has been substantial progress on a deal, but that Trump’s own mercurial nature, plus recent domestic pressures — such as the protests in Los Angeles, Calif. and the president’s feud with billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk — are making any certainty around a timeline even more unpredictable.
The U.S. and Canada have been embroiled in a trade war since February, when the president began implementing a series of tariffs on Canadian goods.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has frequently said in response to Trump’s levies that the decades-old Canada-U.S. relationship is “over,” but that a new economic and security relationship between the two countries remains possible.
Speaking to reporters on his way into a caucus meeting Wednesday morning, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said the talks are a “very dynamic situation,” adding he would defer to the prime minister and the minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade.
“We’re all on the same page. We’re fighting for Canada, we’re fighting for industry, making sure that they understand that this is damaging on both sides of the border,” Champagne said.
Last week, Industry Minister Melanie Joly confirmed Carney and Trump have been in direct talks in recent weeks, with readouts of those calls not being made public.
Meanwhile, during a fireside chat hosted at the Canadian Club of Ottawa on Wednesday, U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra said that “all the indications are that we could move to a very positive agreement.”
“Let’s see what’s in here, because there’s also the possibility you could end up with something like no deal or whatever,” Hoekstra said. “That wouldn’t be ideal, but until a deal is announced, you really won’t know what’s in it, and you won’t know that it’s finalized.”
Hoekstra, who attended the luncheon following Carney’s visit to Washington last month, also said the two leaders are “in a hurry to get things done,” adding “the pace is unprecedented.”
‘Premature to break out the champagne’: Bolton
Former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton said in an interview on CTV Power Play with Vassy Kapelos on Tuesday that he too has heard of increased speculation of an imminent deal, but cautioned “there could still be a long way to go.”
“I think that is a risk,” Bolton said, when asked whether a deal in the traditional sense is possible with Trump, considering the president’s tariffs contravene the existing trade pact he signed during his first term. “I think what Trump wants more than anything else is to be able to announce that he’s got a deal that solves the problem. Now, whether it does or not is, is anybody’s guess.”
“I think it’s premature, based on the speculation to break out the champagne,” Bolton also said.
Carney announced Monday that he plans to boost spending to finally meet the NATO target of spending two per cent of GDP on defence this year. That’s later than Canada first signed onto the target more than a decade ago, but five years earlier than Carney committed to during the election.
“It’s probably worth what you paid for it,” Bolton told Kapelos. “It is a sore point for many Americans, not just Donald Trump, that going back to (former U.S. president) Barack Obama, who called NATO allies who didn’t hit the two per cent target ‘free riders.’”
“And if that’s part of the deal, I could see that coming,” added Bolton, who served as National Security Advisor from 2018-2019, during Trump’s first term as president.
With files from CTV News Chief Political Correspondent Vassy Kapelos, Senior Political Correspondent Mike Le Couteur, and Supervising Producer Stephanie Ha
