How many elections can you keep track of at one time? Across the province municipal campaigns were already under way then the Ontario election was called and now we have four federal byelections – two of which are in Toronto.
Joe Cressy is running for the NDP in the federal riding of Trinity-Spadina. Prime Minister Harper called the byelection on Sunday and Cressy says he spends a good bit of time going door to door explaining to voters that, yes, he’s the federal candidate – no, Olivia Chow is not the MP anymore she’s running for mayor and yes, there is another NDP candidate running for election in Ontario.
It leaves me to wonder if all this campaigning at the same time will help or hurt turn out in the Ontario election on June 12. Remember turn out in 2011 was just under 50 per cent. All the parties will be working hard to get out the vote on what might very well be a beautiful summer like day.
As always in politics, the best organization will have an edge and I always look to how the campaigns handle the media to get an early sense of organization. That includes the emails parties send out their trumpeting policies and whipping out fact checks on what the others are promising. It includes the phone calls on Saturday to make sure cameras are sent out to cover events. It includes answering emails and calls when questions come up.
So, a week into the race who’s got the edge? I have to call it a tie between the Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats with the Liberals trailing. The Tories are setting up conference calls to brief the media, quick to answer any and all questions and first with tempting teases for what is coming up. The lead would go to the PC’s except the party loses points for the string of screw ups on Hudak’s appearances. The most recent yesterday when a photo op planned to roll out on a subway car was scuttled for the lack of the permit. The NDP don’t have the conference calls but they are fast with the releases and calls and emails get returned in minutes. And I’d note that the NDP got to Brampton on Saturday to grab the political points on the Unilever plant closing and the almost 300 jobs being lost. That leaves the Liberals. The releases get to my inbox and the fact checking gets done but not in the same volume as the other two parties. My calls and emails often disappear into the ether. Getting an answer to even the simplest question like when will the Liberals select a candidate in Barrie goes unanswered.
The NDP are strong in northwestern Ontario and hope to make a gain in Sudbury so it’s not a surprise that Andrea Horwath took the NDP banner to Thunder Bay this morning and then flew to Sudbury. She’s the first leader to hit the north and will probably make more visits to the region than the other two leaders combined. In Thunder Bay, Horwath promised that an NDP government would take the HST off hydro bills to “make life more affordable.” The NDP said the savings would be $120 a year
This morning the high cost of hydro was on Tory leader Tim Hudak’s mind too. He started his day in his home riding in Niagara at yet another factory. He unveiled “step five” of his Million Job Plan. Today’s initiative is to reduce hydro rates back to 2009 levels. Hudak said, “We believe that will be 40,000 new jobs.” Hudak said the party had an “independent economist” go over its numbers and said families will save $384 over four years. The campaign is promising a full accounting on how the Tory job plan is going to be funded in the coming days.
Liberal leader Kathleen Wynn started her day in the Liberal riding of Vaughan and then moved on to Hamilton before coming back to Etobicoke. The day’s theme was skilled jobs for young people. With youth unemployment in Toronto at 22 per cent it’s a topic that is important to young people (who very well may not vote) and their parents (who just might vote).
Wynne is making the difference between her position and Hudak quite clear and it is all built around fear. Today she talked again about Hudak’s “pink slip pledge” and how the Liberals “believe jobs are more important than cuts.” She warned that the Tory job plan will “plunge Ontario back into a recession.”
Wynne wants you to buy the idea that a Liberal government will oversee projects and infrastructure that will create jobs. Hudak’s offer to the voter is a Conservative government that will create jobs by reducing the size and role of government in Ontario. Where does that leave the NDP? Today in Sudbury Horwath continued to talk about leadership. Sitting at a dining room table with a young family she said “Ontario wants leadership that unites people.” Suggesting she is the person to pull the people of Ontario together. She called Hudak “divisive” and suggested the Liberals have too many scandals in the closet to be trusted.
