If there were any questions about Doug Ford’s passion to run for mayor it was put to rest tonight.
Ford was prepared and knew what he had to do. For two hours Ford ignored Olivia Chow and focused all his attention and attacks on the man leading in all the polls, John Tory. Time and again Ford made his case as the candidate for the average worker in Toronto. Time and again he portrayed Tory as an elitist – the candidate from downtown who has everything.
Ford’s strategy tonight was to build support by using class politics to increase his appeal across the city. Ford promised, “I will stand up for the people.” Later he pointed at his two opponents and said, “It comes to this. You two live downtown and you have subways. The poor folks in Scarborough freeze.” The largely pro-Ford crowd lapped it up. But did Ford’s tough talk further alienate voters across the city who have decided that Toronto does not need four more years of yet another Ford’s bluster and swagger style of politics?
Frontrunner Tory relied on the lines he has used week in and week out for more than six months. Tonight, facing a direct attack from both Ford and Chow, he seemed to shrink into himself and hunker down. He did not have facts at hand to rebut either Ford or Chow’s attacks. As Ford’s attacks mounted Tory finally resorted to dredging up an old Ford quote saying, “he called city councillors monkeys.” Tory repeated the quote again and again saying Ford can’t work with the other councillors at city hall. Ford was ready with a comeback. He looked over at Tory and listed a series of Ford administration accomplishments won at city hall citing the wide margin of votes each passed.
All night Chow looked right past Ford and kept pressing Tory to explain his SmartTrack plan and how it will be paid for. Time and again Chow talked about her experience at city hall and her ability to get specific projects done. Chow also stuck to her campaign line that “everyone counts.”
After it was all over Chow and Tory waded into the cameras to try to spin the night’s lines in their favour. For his part Ford strode to his car with a big smile on his face. Tonight the Ford campaign said that he will not be at tomorrow’s mayoral debates. It all came across as a signal. Ford will decide when he talks and who he talks to. But not showing up for debates might backfire. For the last month of the campaign voters will want every opportunity to judge the new candidate and an empty debate chair will give Tory and Chow an easier target than tonight. Ford has a long way to go to catch Tory but there may just be too many Torontonians who have had enough of the Ford name and boastful attitude of this Ford.
The CP24/CTV Nanos poll released today reveals that over the past three weeks Toronto has focused even more on the issue of transit and gridlock facing the city. Now almost 56 per cent of voters say getting Toronto moving again is their top priority. That’s a five-point jump from three weeks ago. Trailing badly at eight per cent is the need to have a new mayor lead the city. The Nanos poll is nothing but good news for Tory. He is seen by a majority of voters, 55 per cent, as being the best candidate to represent the city. On that question Chow and Ford are way, way behind Tory at 19 per cent.
A Forum Research poll also released today has Tory with only a seven point lead over Ford, 38 percent to 31 per cent, and Chow up to 25 percent. But that poll too has Tory with a strong approval rating of 64 per cent almost 20 points ahead of Ford. Both polls show that the vast majority of voters have decided on their choice for mayor. The Nanos poll says only seven per cent of voters are still undecided and the Forum poll has it even lower at four per cent. It’s worth noting that at this point in the 2010 campaign the Nanos poll for CP24 still had 18 per cent of voters say they were undecided.
Last night on CP24, Jeff Silverstein, the communications director for Ford, dismissed the Nanos poll saying four years ago Nanos had George Smitherman ahead of Rob Ford. On a number of other occasions the Ford campaign has said that the CP24 Nanos poll in September 2010 had Smitherman ahead of Ford. In fact that poll, released on Sept. 16, placed Ford at 45.6 per cent and Smitherman at 21.3 per cent. A Nanos poll a month later, in mid-October 2010, did show the race tightening but still had Rob Ford four points ahead of Smitherman. After the votes were counted up back in 2010 Ford ended up with 47 per cent almost ten points ahead of Smitherman.
But then every candidate running for office always says the only poll that counts is the one on election day.
