The CP24/CTV poll released today shows just how broad the support is for John Tory as the campaign enters its final phase. On every question Tory has the support of more Torontonians than either Rob Ford or Olivia Chow. Tory is seen as the most competent candidate by 51 per cent of voters. Back in 2010 Ford led the pack on that question as 30 per cent thought Ford was the most competent candidate. Today 18 per cent believe Ford is the most competent and Chow is just ahead of Ford at 22 per cent.
During election campaigns pollsters always ask voters to identify the top issue that needs to be addressed. When Nanos Research asked that question for CP24 back in 2010, 19 per cent of Toronto voters put transportation at the top of the list followed closely by taxes at 17 percent and then concerns about spending and budget deficits at 16 per cent. That was then. Four years later 49 per cent say transportation issues are the number one concern facing Toronto. With competing visions for how to get Toronto moving, the Nanos Research poll for CP24/CTV and the Globe and Mail asked which candidate has “the best vision for urban transit in Toronto.” Again here John Tory, with 38 per cent, polled ahead of Rob Ford who had 24 per cent of the support and Olivia Chow who had 22 per cent.
In fact, the mayoral campaign has focused on transportation and today was no exception. Rob Ford unveiled his $9-billion plan for Toronto this morning. He promises subways and only subways and he promises that light rail transportation will not go forward if he is mayor. Ford said he is “the only candidate who can bring subways to Toronto.” During his presentation he spoke as if the Scarborough subway is already completed saying, “We built the Scarborough subway.”
Ford’s plan, which you can read about here on CP24.com, lists nine ways the plan will be paid for. Only three of the nine have numbers attached to them. At one point Ford was asked to be more exact on the funding. Ford’s response, “I can’t give you a price on that.” But Ford did promise no tax increases to fund what he called “an ambitious plan.” Later, on CP24, Ford told Stephen Ledrew that “there is no flip-flopping” on issues and insisted his campaign is “hitting on all cylinders.”
John Tory and Olivia Chow have already outlined their transit visions for the city. (Click here for a transit comparison chart)And today, after a debate sponsored by the film industry, Tory and Chow took their shots at the Ford plan. Tory made no mention of Chow at all and said Ford “comes up with one fiction after another…he is out of gas.” But on CP24 Tory said it is clear that Chow “is the NDP candidate” and warned, “Taxes will go through the roof under Chow.” Olivia Chow’s strategy was to lump Ford and Tory together as much as possible saying, “Mr. Ford and Mr. Tory’s train will never leave the station.” Chow says Torontonians want to know “what can we do now?” She says her plan is a practical concrete plan.
Front runner target
Right now John Tory is positioned in the centre between Rob Ford and Olivia Chow and voters seem to be comfortable with that. As the front-runner in the mayoral race, Tory will feel the heat from both Ford and Chow in the coming weeks. He says he will “stick with his message” but pollster Nanos says the attacks from Ford and Chow might shake loose some of his support. Nanos says, “Chow need to attract the progressive Tory supporters and Ford needs to draw in Tory’s more conservative supporters.”
Tomorrow’s noon hour debate at the Toronto Region Board of Trade will be a good place to see if those tactics are used and how Tory, now the clear leader, can fend them off.
