The Toronto Foundation released its annual report, Vital Signs, a snapshot on the state of the city. The report should be required reading for everyone running for any political office in Toronto’s Oct. 27 municipal election.
If you believe, like I do, that it is always best to “follow the money,” the report provides an excellent summary of the financial state Toronto finds itself in. Vital Signs is clear, “Toronto doesn’t have a spending problem; it has a revenue generation problem.” The report finds that “spending has stayed largely the same” but “more money is now spent on transportation than on family and social services” for the last ten years.
On the revenue side, although Toronto’s property taxes are the lowest in the Greater Toronto Area, they still account for almost 40 per cent of all revenue. The price paid for those low property taxes are higher user fees and charges, including TTC fares. The financial challenges facing Toronto are impacting on the city’s social fabric. The greatest concern must be for the increasing number of children living in poverty. The report says that a third of all children under 17 were living in poverty in 2012. The outgoing city council recognized the need to address poverty by committing to a poverty reduction strategy but the Vital Signs report says some experts have declared “epidemic levels of child poverty in Toronto.” In a summary of research on the city, the report concludes that if nothing changes by 2025 Toronto’s wealthiest communities will comprise 30 per cent of the city and the poorest areas will be 60 per cent. It warns that middle-income neighborhoods will have almost disappeared.
Not surprisingly, Olivia Chow was the first of Toronto’s mayoral candidates to quote Vital Signs. She said there is a critical need to “create hope in the city” and to invest in neighbourhoods. Chow’s platform recognizes the social needs of the city more explicitly than either John Tory or Doug Ford. Ford’s platform is based on the promise to not raise taxes. That leaves unanswered his vision for addressing the needs of Toronto’s poor. Tory is also committed to keeping property tax increases at or below the rate of inflation. Tory keeps saying the federal and provincial governments need to step up and increase funding to Toronto. That is one campaign line that all three candidates agree on but it’s not a given that the other levels of government will come up with more funding for the city.
Ok, I admit it - I have no idea what is going on when it comes to the polls.
Yesterday, a Mainstreet Technologies poll had Tory safely ahead of Ford picking up support from both Ford and Chow over the past week. Today, a Forum Research poll surprised me showing a four point jump for Ford at the expense of Tory. Everyone’s headline is that the poll shows a statistical tie in the mayor’s race. It is a significant shift; one that Forum’s Lorne Bozinoff calls “a shocking upset indeed.” One worrying trend for the Tory camp might be the drop in Tory’s approval rating. It’s dropped 11 points in two weeks and according to this poll now stands at 53 per cent. Ford’s approval rating has remained stable and is now at 42 per cent. Neither of this week’s polls bode well for Chow’s campaign and her approval rating has also dropped from 56 per cent to 42 per cent. As we go into the Thanksgiving weekend, it is unlikely there will be another public poll until next Wednesday when I expect both pollsters will have another look at which way Torontonians are leaning.
Another debate tonight and the three mayoral candidates and the media got thrown a curve by the organizers.
The Leaside Property Owners’ Association decided to close the doors to live coverage of the meeting. All three campaigns learned of the decision mid-afternoon. Efforts to reverse the decision went nowhere. And late today another session, scheduled for Thursday on gender issues, was also cancelled. All candidate meeting gluttons can look forward to two Toronto sessions tomorrow – one in the afternoon and another in the evening. Then, at 9 p.m., CP24 will host the two leading candidates in the Mississauga race for mayor for a half-hour discussion. Bonnie Crombie and Steve Mahoney will discuss the issues facing Canada’s sixth largest city with Stephen LeDrew.
